Unfortunately, some misuse science. Some of their intentions, are far from benevolent. They see science as a mechanism for political power and control. There is great danger from those who would use science for political control over us.

How do they do this? They instill, and then continuously magnify, fear. Fear is the most effective instrument of totalitarian control.

Chet Richards, physicist,

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/03/science_in_an_age_of_fear.html

Sunday 6 March 2011

Teach Them about this Deeply Deceptive Statistic used by CAGW Spinners: the '97%'

The notorious, the fatuous, the misleading claim that  '97% of climatologists' believe in ('catastrophic' implied/stated/assumed) anthropogenic global warming has been rebutted many times.  Anyone with an elementary grasp of sample-survey techniques would have refused to publish the results, based as they are on a sloppy question, an imperfect frame, and a tiny subset of self-selected respondents of unknown qualifications.  But perhaps when you are saving the planet, the means justifies the ends, or more clearly, 'let's not let scientific integrity get in the way of political impact.'

The WUWT site has a post dated 4th March from Jospeh D'Aleo, a meteorologist, reacting to another meteorologist still trotting out that egregious 97% as if it were a clincher instead of an embarassment, as per:

'Of the climatologists, a staggering 97% agreed to the same question… It’s very difficult for me to understand the disdain for science that exists today.'  

Oh the ironing!  (as they say on the Daily Bayonet)

D'Aleo digs out an IceCap post from last December by Solomon, of the Canadian National Post, and reproduces part of it.  Here is an extract, referring to a crude online survey sent to 10,257 'Earth scientists', of whom only 3,146 chose to respond, and of them a subset of 77 was extracted to create the 97%:

'This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers - in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change.  The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout.'

Of course, with a mass media largely supine and uncritical under the whirling deluge of alarmist press releases, soundbites, and sundry spins, the '97%' grew wings and became something with which to impress the public.  But the public is catching up.  Teachers can contribute by ensuring that their pupils see that '97% ' as well-worthy of their disdain.

An SPPI report on the '97%' is available here: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/consensus_opiate.pdf


Hat-tip: The Climate Science blog.

Added 7 March: There is analysis at Climate Quotes of the two questions used in the survey, noting that they could readily be answered in the affirmative by those who do not see any convincing evidence or arguments that AGW is a major and urgent threat: http://climatequotes.com/2011/02/10/study-claiming-97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-flawed/

Added 19 July 2012.  Barry Woods provides a lot more information and insight into fatuous 97% and 98% claims: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/what-else-did-the-97-of-scientists-say/#more-60090
Amongst other things, he tracked down an MSc thesis that was the source of one of the most widely quoted 97% figures: 'As this MSc thesis was the original source of the oft cited Doran paper  97%  quote, I tracked it down (sometime ago now) and discovered in the appendi that there was a great deal of  email feedback and answers to write in questions from the scientists that actually participated in the survey, much of it critical and sceptical of the survey itself, the methodology and the questions asked. Additionally, amongst those environmental scientists that responded, were some very sceptical sounding scientists with respect to man made climate change being the dominant driver of climate change.'  
As well as the Doran/Zimmerman survey, he reports on the later Anderegg 'survey', and notes scathing critiques of it:
'Paul Matthews: “Scott Denning needs to be more careful if he and his fellow climate scientists are to be taken seriously by scientists from other fields such as myself. 
He loses credibility by referring to the ridiculous Anderegg et al study, in which the authors put scientists into two different pigeon-holes. ' 

Thursday 3 March 2011

Picture for the Classroom Wall: shut down Australia, save 0.01C of warming

When it comes to that part of the curriculum calling for the children to suggest ways of reducing their 'carbon footprints', such as getting their parents to cancel holidays, turn off lights, reduce the heating, and so on, there is great scope for making them feel bad about their way of life, and the awful things their parents have done, such as buying a car or leaving the TV on standby, or buying food not produced in a nearby field, or, horror or horrors, not giving two hoots about it all.  The above diagram can help them see how worthwhile their actions could be in helping save the planet as it apparently hurtles like a snail towards a somewhat more congenial climate.

The illustration above by Jo Nova.  More at: http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/shut-down-australia-and-save-0-01-degree/

The calculations, based on IPCC-style science, are provided by SPPI in a report which can be downloaded from here:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/impacts_of_climate_mitigation_measures_in_australia.html

The report is very short, and the sums look easy enough.  Why not get a class to do them for your country?  Help the children see what all the fuss is about, and at the same time help yourself decide how much longer you can stomach pushing spirit-sapping mind-numbing propaganda from the WWF, the IPCC, etc, etc, etc

Notes added 8 March: (1) Here are some computation results for an EU scheme that would return an ostensible 0.002C impact for an expenditure of 2.9 trillion euros: http://notrickszone.com/2011/03/08/the-eus-serial-economy-killers-0-002%C2%B0c-for-e2-9-trillion/
                                     (2) Here are results for many countries of the world, scroll down to find this table
Which I interpret to mean 'shutting down Australia', for example would ostensibly give a temp drop of 1.92/1000 C, i.e. 0.0019C, which is a lot less than the result of 0.01C headlined in this post.  The method used was different, being based on the assumption that greenhouse gases mean the average temp of the Earth is 33C higher than it would be without them, and noting that only about 0.14C of this could reasonably be attributed to manmade CO2.  The earlier Australian value was ' ... calculated with Wigley 1998 protocol assuming that Australia would otherwise have kept producing about 3% of the total CO2 emissions of developed countries. The SPPI estimate uses Wigley’s (1998) mid-range emissions scenario (which itself is based upon the IPCC’s scenario “IS92a” ' (see link to Jo Nova's post above).
Note 1 added 14 March: Jo Nova has new calculations of temperature rises:' ..The effect, according to the IPCC’s theory of man-made global warming' is not alarming: http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/carbon-tax-australia-welcome-to-futility-island/    100% reduction in Australian emissions from now to 2050 would reduce temps by 0.0154C using the IPCC approach, an approach which one can of course readily assume to be based more on PR-potential than good science.
Note 2 added 14 March.  USA.  Willis Eschenbach has been doing sums for a post on WUWT about the impact of EPA proposed CO2 reductions: 'Based on the reanalysis the results for projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations are estimated to be reduced by an average of 2.9 ppm (previously 3.0 ppm), global mean temperature is estimated to be reduced by 0.006 to 0.0015 °C by 2100.'  
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/13/how-much-would-you-buy/

Wednesday 2 March 2011

Johnny Ball on School Science: Why are we scaring our kids?


The distinguished presenter of TV programmes and talks on mathematics and science for children has just been on a daytime news programme on UK TV, showing a brief movie about his views, and being interviewed.  The transcipt is over at GWPF: http://www.thegwpf.org/opinion-pros-a-cons/2563-johnny-ball-why-are-we-scaring-our-kids-to-death.html

He asks 'Why are we scaring our kids to death?'

So, why are we?  And who is doing it?  The school curriculum seems obsessed with violence, tragedy, and disasters such as National Socialism and WWII, fatuous talk of CAGW, and pollution of various kinds, and of course the counter-progressive mush of 'sustainability'.  Who is it that is so determined to give our children a poor view of humanity and our prospects?  They want to 'make little activists'.  Why do we let them within a mile of young minds and spirits?

Well done Johnny Ball for taking this fight into that heart of the 'liberal' darkness, the BBC.

Lessons in Intolerance: a wry look at contempt for CAGW sceptics


The Sun, 26th February, 2011.

Hat-tip: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7301  

A more considered, but equally heartfelt piece on this topic is to be found in The Spectator magazine:

'It’s another powerful, and depressing tale of the woeful state of climate science. Real science welcomes refutation: with global warming, it is treated as a religion. As they say in their cover story:

“Nature’s original peer-review process had let through an obviously flawed paper, and no professional climate scientist then disputed  it - perhaps because of fear that doing so might harm their careers. As the title of Richard Bean’s new play - The Heretic - at the Royal Court hints, young scientists going into climate studies these days are a bit like young theologians in Elizabethan England. They quickly learn that funding and promotion dries up if you express heterodox views, or doubt the scripture. The scripture, in this case, being the assembled reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” '

and this classic of understated but penetrating insight:

'Science as a philosophy is a powerful, but fragile thing. In the case of climate, it is now in conflict with science as an institution.'


Link: http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/6706648/debunking-the-antarctica-myths.thtml

Friday 25 February 2011

Learning by Metaphor: foolish building, foolish technology, foolish teacher, foolish 'science'

Foiled by the winter: The £25,000 eco-classroom that can't be used because solar panels don't provide enough heat



Simple arithmetic would have shown this building to be a foolish one, yet it was constructed.

Modern technology would have made a better building than this one, yet it was constructed.

The importance of the building as a gesture, no matter how absurd, outweighs, for some, all other considerations:
"Headteacher Jill Hughes defended the project and said she hoped classes would be held in the classroom when the weather gets warmer.  She said: ‘We’re delighted to have the Living Ark - its a tremendous resource both for the school and the local community and is an important part of the Muswell Hill low carbon zone initiative.’ "

The source of this madness, this modern ideology, can be traced to political exploitation of computer models of the climate which are hopelessly inadequate.  Just like this building.  It is a metaphor for the wastefulness and the incompetence and the smugness of CO2 alarmism.

More details in the Daily Mail report.

Hat-tips:   http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/25/climate-craziness-of-the-week-3/    and http://spielclimate.blogspot.com/2010/03/suggestions-for-blogs-and-links.html

Note added 7 March: details of a grander scheme costing colleges in Los Angeles the loss of $10million are given here:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/03/colleges-blow-10-million-on-wildly.html, and once again it would have been avoided if arithmetic had been allowed at least equal status with ideology.

Note added 11 July: another example of this foolishness, this time from East Germany :
'Pupils and teachers dread every school day at the SeeCampus. If the deodorant of just one person fails to work, then half the classroom goes into a coma. The ventilation in the exemplary passive building is a catastrophe. There’s an extreme lack of fresh air on hot days. Because of concern over the health of the children, who complain about headaches and fatigue, parents are threatening to stop operation of the school through legal action.  The school building SeeCampus in Niederlausitz becomes completely overheated on summer days and is badly ventilated. Headaches and cardio-respiratory problems with pupils and teachers are the result. The number of sick days is climbing rapidly.'
http://notrickszone.com/2011/07/11/flopped-green-passive-school-suffocating-students/


Note added 23 September 2013: more metaphor opportunities:
(1) children threatened by insects dropping in from an 'eco-school' roof:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/10327504/School-closed-after-pupils-bitten-by-mites-in-eco-roof.html
(2)children threatened by mould and damp in another 'eco-school':  'Devon County Council says it has already spent £250,000 to investigate the problem and without urgent repairs, it says teaching pupils inside the building could seriously damage their health.' 
http://www.thisiscornwall.co.uk/Acclaimed-eco-school-forced-shut-classrooms-years/story-19789593-detail/story.html#ixzz2fi669r8B 

Thursday 24 February 2011

An End to Government Scaring of Children with Climate Propaganda in the UK?: a couple of straws to clutch at

We know that children in the UK have been frightened by materials on climate change.
We know that the mass media in the UK have produced or relayed 'climate porn' for many years.
We know that the UK government issued the reprehensible, and frightening, DVD 'An Inconvenient Truth' to schools in 2007, along with guidance on how to make the most of it.
We know that in 2009 the UK government funded and promoted a frightening tv ad with imagery apparently designed to attract and disturb children.
We know that a scary movie involving children was used during the opening of the Copenhagen climate conference in December 2009.We know that the UK government funded absurd, and scary, nursery rhyme posters on climate for which it was rebuked in 2010 by the Advertising Standards Agency.
We know that art exhibitions for climate propaganda have been promoted by scary imagery, and even individuals have produced scary movies to help their climate cause.
We know that various groups have produced more professional scary movies and adverts viewable by children, or, in the case of the ugly 10:10 movie 'No Pressure', with the brutal murder of children as one of the dramatic devices to urge conformance to the party line on climate.
We know that games and cartoons have been produced to scare children about their 'carbon footprint'.
We know that various initiatives on climate change aimed at schools are in place, and are concerned to achieve 'action' of one kind or another, but mostly pressure on parents to toe the party line on climate and the desired 'behaviour change' as per the prescriptions and analyses pushed by the IPCC.
We know that schools are being pushed into seeking to create 'little climate activists'.
We know that the head of the IPCC has identified children as a key political target.

So it is not unreasonable to speculate that scary climate movies may be shown to children in schools in the UK.


But evidence of how much and how often does not seem to exist. 

The journalist Leo Hickman has had several pieces recently on the possibility that scary videos are being used in schools to advance the cause of climate alarmism (aka 'CAGW', 'climate change', 'sustainability', 'climate disruption').  This was triggered by a remark by Johnny Ball, who built up a considerable reputation for sharing his enthusiasm for mathematics on tv programmes and talks for schoolchildren.  In more recent years he has taken up the cause of defending children from climate scaremongering.  This, of course, is to invite the wrath of the greens.  So it is all the more remarkable that a CO2-alarmed correspondent in a CO2-alarmed newspaper has sought to expose as unacceptable the kind of attacks on his reputation which Ball has reported.

Hickman reports Ball as asserting that a movie talking of an unliveable planet by 2050 has been shown in schools.  And, to his credit, Hickman pursues this.  First he appealed to his readers to provide any examples of such a movie being shown in schools, and he received none.  He also checked back with Ball, who could not give further details.  And then he checked with the Department for Education (DfE).

The good news here is first of all that no examples were sent to him, other than reference to Gore's reprehensible 'An Inconvenient Truth'.  This may be due to the nature of the Guardian readership, a paper which gave a generous plug to the 'No Pressure' video.  But, on the other hand, it may be due to such videos being rarely shown. 

The second piece of good news lies in the response Leo Hickman obtained from the DfE (my emphases added):

"Keen to get the definitive position on this, I asked the Department for Education (DfE) to clarify the situation regarding the showing of ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ in schools. It said that in March, 2007, the following email was sent to all secondary schools announcing that the film, as part of a larger educational pack, was being sent out, but that schools could opt out if they wished.

Then, after the court case in October, 2007, updated guidance was emailed to schools in December, 2007.  But that was 2007. What about today? A DfE spokeswoman said it is very unlikely any school is still using this educational pack containing An Inconvenient Truth because teachers are warned on the website that this is old teaching material and could be out-of-date. She said no other climate change-related film has been distributed to schools by the department since 2007. She added:

    We are awaiting to hear more about the National Curriculum review, which will look at all aspects of the curriculum, and will know more then about where teaching on climate change will fit – currently it comes more under the science curriculum, it may well still be [following the review]."

Should we be pleased, or remain cynical?  The alarmists and their strategists may well have decided that the 'scare the children' tactic has backfired on them, or merely that they always need something new to keep the scare bubbling over in the political class.  So perhaps we shall be spared further shocking, blatant, scaremongering materials.  Perhaps, they will gamble that there has been enough of that, that 'CO2 as a source of impending catastrophe' can be treated as a given, or pushed to one side, while superficially more positive messages about 'sustainability' will provide the new banners in their relentless campaign against humanity and industrial progress.  Time will tell.  In the meantime, the numerous groups set up to tap into climate education funds, or win donations from climate scaremongering, or trade in carbon credits, or secure influence over governments through 'environmentalism', or pursue any advantage based on the notion that we face a clear and present danger from rising CO2 levels, will not go away overnight.


It may be merely that the presentation of misleading or frightening materials on climate to children has entered a more subtle phase.

Tuesday 22 February 2011

Schools without Scruples over Climate: never mind the facts, the computers have spoken

Definition of 'Scruple': a doubt or hesitation that troubles the conscience or that comes from the difficulty of determining whether something is right.  Schools such as the one reported on here in Norfolk, UK, don't seem to suffer from such a thing when it comes to climate:





It is not difficult to excuse this sort of excess, e.g.
Well, we're saving the planet.  That deals with the conscience.
The IPCC, the Royal Society and other Government-funded bodies, all say we are doomed unless we reduce CO2.  That deals with the 'rightness'.

But what is the reality?  First, with regard to the weather phenomena of the planet, nothing at all extraordinary has happened anywhere with regard to temperatures, precipitation, storms, ice extent, glacier movements, or sea levels.  All we are seeing is perfectly consistent with business as usual for a turbulent atmosphere with a complex, irregular surface, and varying orbital, solar, and oceanic features.  The null hypothesis of 'business as usual' has not been discredited by observations.

Second, with regard to argument from authority, the circular nature of that can only be broken when pushed into, when it will be discovered that political activists orchestrated a global panic by exploiting the conjectures of a few dozen workers in the field of climatology, especially those parts relying heavily on computer models.  The limitations of their work are becoming more apparent year by year.  Let it be summarised as follows: the computer models are too primitive to be fit for prediction, the data sets are too sparse in both space and time to be sufficient as a detailed guide to what has happened in the past, let alone be capable of reliable extrapolation into the future. 

So, we are in a situation in which nothing unusual has been seen to be happening to the weather, to the sea, or to the ice.  There has been a remarkably steady growth in ambient CO2 recorded at Mauna Loa, a volcano on a Pacific island.  Just about anything and everything in and around the atmosphere can influence climate, including CO2.  The problem is not determining whether this factor or that has an influence, but rather it is determining the nature and the magnitude of it. The simplest model for increasing CO2 levels is that they would lead to a modest overall warming, one which would be hard to reliably confirm in the variability of temperatures due to all the other factors involved, a warming of around 1C for a doubling of the ambient levels. But a few people programmed up computers to illustrate a much more dramatic effect of CO2 via an unconfirmed positive feedback mechanism.  This was spotted as a godsend by those who wished to see an end to industrialisation or a weakening of western power or a dimunition in energy consumption or a reduction in population or an overthrow of capitalism or a massive transfer of cash to the developing countries or the dawn of world government or a rise in their own level of recognition as wise prophets or seers or an increase in the audience for their media or an increase in the grants awarded to their institution or more votes for their party.  And what a hugely successful 'big thing' they have made of it over the past 30 years.  That man-made CO2 is leading to catastrophe is now a 'given' in our schools, and leads to events such as this one:

But it is by no means properly treated as a 'given'.  It is not satisfactory to base so much belief and commitment on a flimsy foundation.

Sources: 

http://www.theclimaterun.org.uk/shaping-norfolks-future/

Hat/tip: Dave W.