There are dozens of sites, possibly hundreds, that are pushing out information and grounds for alarm to children and young people in and around our climate. The variability of this climate poses problems, not least from the inevitable 'extreme values' that must occur from time to time in any particular characteristic subject to this variability, such as temperature or rainfall. But these sites are not so much about climate as about 'blame' and political action, often using frightening images or language to engage with their targets and persuade them to hassle their parents, to change their lifestyles, and generally be scared witless about the future. The complete lack of observational evidence to justify such treatment of the young does not deter them. They have been told by the IPCC that the world is doomed unless we act soon, and they believe it. The 'evidence', such as it is, is entirely based on the projections of computer models of climate specifically designed to give CO2 a large, indeed driving effect, a role which it steadfastly refuses to adopt in the real atmosphere. Very commonly, these sites compare the atmosphere to a greenhouse - an all but entirely fatuous analogy, but one which has caught on very widely. One day, pupils will laugh at any teacher who tries to explain why greenhouses get hot through 'trapping infra-red'. But Miss, they will chuckle, greenhouses almost transparent to infrared would get just as hot as ordinary glass ones. And unless 'Miss' has a red button on her desk, she will have some explaining to do.
I have put a partial listing of such sites on this blog. It can be found as a 'Page', and can be reached via the link near the top right corner of the homepage. Dave W has provided further information on some of these sites, and I am most grateful for his help.
If anyone out there would like to help with this, please email me (JSclimatelessonsatgmaildotcom) with the name of the site you plan to check out, so that we may reduce the chances of people working on the same one at the same time.
Please also email me with any errors or omissions you come across on the Page. Thanks!
Unfortunately, some misuse science. Some of their intentions, are far from benevolent. They see science as a mechanism for political power and control. There is great danger from those who would use science for political control over us.
How do they do this? They instill, and then continuously magnify, fear. Fear is the most effective instrument of totalitarian control.
Chet Richards, physicist,
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/03/science_in_an_age_of_fear.html
Sunday, 24 October 2010
Maths, Science, Ego - what are we doing re 'climate' in our schools?
Cartoon source: http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/23251
I think ego-building is a part of what is going on, but that is to be optimistic. Telling children that they are to 'save the planet' is perhaps good for their egos. But telling them, based pretty much on computer models that are not fit to be let out of the groves of academe, that the planet, which for the young means their family and friends and pets, is in imminent danger, is surely bad for their spirits. And bad for their intellects too, since there is precious little good science behind CO2-alarmism and an awful lot of goal-motivated speculation. What that goal, or goals are, is worthy of debate, but handing over more taxes and more power to governments seems an intrinsic part of it. Destroying industrial progress seems another. Mostly, though, it seems to feed on the joy of controlling others - what they eat, drink, and smoke; how they light, heat, and build their houses; what opinions they may hold on this that and the other; what transport systems they are allowed to use; and how far away their trading partners are permitted to be. All based on fear. Irrational, spirit-sapping, mind-numbing, truth-obscuring fear. What a way to prepare the young for the future. Let us hope that in China and in India, and in other powerhouses of the developing world, they will choose instead to pursue maths, and science, and independent thought, even as the US and Europe and other places wreck themselves and their young with dismal, pessimistic foolishness on a grand scale. These Chinese and Indian and other children will not just take the 1st and 2nd places on such podia suggested by the cartoon above, but soon the 3rd and 4th and ... nth as well. Good luck to them. Our future generations may yet learn from them in turn.
I think ego-building is a part of what is going on, but that is to be optimistic. Telling children that they are to 'save the planet' is perhaps good for their egos. But telling them, based pretty much on computer models that are not fit to be let out of the groves of academe, that the planet, which for the young means their family and friends and pets, is in imminent danger, is surely bad for their spirits. And bad for their intellects too, since there is precious little good science behind CO2-alarmism and an awful lot of goal-motivated speculation. What that goal, or goals are, is worthy of debate, but handing over more taxes and more power to governments seems an intrinsic part of it. Destroying industrial progress seems another. Mostly, though, it seems to feed on the joy of controlling others - what they eat, drink, and smoke; how they light, heat, and build their houses; what opinions they may hold on this that and the other; what transport systems they are allowed to use; and how far away their trading partners are permitted to be. All based on fear. Irrational, spirit-sapping, mind-numbing, truth-obscuring fear. What a way to prepare the young for the future. Let us hope that in China and in India, and in other powerhouses of the developing world, they will choose instead to pursue maths, and science, and independent thought, even as the US and Europe and other places wreck themselves and their young with dismal, pessimistic foolishness on a grand scale. These Chinese and Indian and other children will not just take the 1st and 2nd places on such podia suggested by the cartoon above, but soon the 3rd and 4th and ... nth as well. Good luck to them. Our future generations may yet learn from them in turn.
Thursday, 21 October 2010
Contempt for Parliament - an effect or an enabler of CO2 alarmism?
A Lord Marland disgraces the House of Lords with his blatant contempt for a fellow peer. But it is a sign not merely of yobbishness on his part, but of the absurdity and indefensibility of the Climate Change Act. It is out of the question that it can be complied with, and this particular exchange merely serves, as did the climategate revelations, to reveal the low calibre of some of those who create, or collaborate with, alarm about CO2 in the atmosphere. This vacuity at government level is unsettling but not surprising - there being so little substance to the case for such alarm. An alarm that is now part of the curriculum in our schools.
(Photo: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/about/lord_marland/lord_marland.aspx)Extract from the proceedings of the House of Lords, 20th October 2010
(http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201011/ldhansrd/text/101020-0001.htm#10102041000398)
Lord Lawson of Blaby: My Lords, is the Minister aware that the chairman of the Government’s own Green Investment Bank commission has authoritatively stated that the cost of meeting our current carbon reduction commitments in this country is somewhere between £800 billion and £1 trillion? Does he not agree that, with the best will in the world, this mind-boggling cost cannot be justified except in the context of a binding global carbon reduction agreement? Therefore, in the absence of such an agreement being secured at Cancun, does he not agree that it is only commonsense to suspend the Climate Change Act until such time as a binding global agreement is secured?
Lord Marland: My Lords, when I bumped into my noble friend in the Corridor and he said that he was catching the train to York I was rather relieved. Sadly, he will be catching a slightly later train than I was hoping for. I have now forgotten entirely what his question was.
Hat-tip: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2010/10/21/lord-marland-shames-parliament.html
Monday, 18 October 2010
Food for thought: Lord Monckton on Canute, Communism, Climate, and Conspiracies
Greenpeace and communism. Maurice Strong and world government. Climate scientists suborned and suborning. And more. Well worth an hour of your time, and if you are a teacher or in educational administration or leadership, food for thought as you reflect on whether you want to be part of the deliberate scaring and misleading of the young about what we know and don't know about climate variation.
This is part 1 of a 5 part set of YouTube videos capturing an interview/presentation with Lord Monckton published by Alex Jones on Prisonplanet.tv. The links to the entire set are here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHyMYEzRyf8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUUcb36a_4I
This is part 1 of a 5 part set of YouTube videos capturing an interview/presentation with Lord Monckton published by Alex Jones on Prisonplanet.tv. The links to the entire set are here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHyMYEzRyf8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUUcb36a_4I
Hat-tip: Sailboi on Google Group 'Climate Science'. http://groups.google.com/group/climate-science/browse_thread/thread/ab4cec19ffba20ac#
Further credits: http://www.infowars.com/
Now this broadcaster, Alex Jones and his site are new to me. He seems to be attacked by the establishment as a 'right-wing conspiracy site', and of course as such any posting using his materials will risk being attacked as well. Well, so be it. My examination of his site suggests to me that he is democratic, libertarian, and a believer in the Constitution of the United States. So far, that's good enough for me.
Note added 10 June 2013 A YouTube video revealing Alex Jones as an unhinged oaf: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgBq6q4x8Fw
Note added 10 June 2013 A YouTube video revealing Alex Jones as an unhinged oaf: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgBq6q4x8Fw
Friday, 15 October 2010
Wikipedia stalls one CO2-agitated editor, giving hope of a broader treatment of climate debates
'William M. Connolley topic-banned (R3)
5.6) William M. Connolley is topic-banned from Climate change, per Remedy 3.
- [snip]....
- It has become clear, during the case itself, that the topic area has become too personalized and polarized around a number of editors who are, frankly, incapable of working together. While I may not agree that all editors involved have the same severity of misbehavior, I can appreciate that a forcible fresh start is probably going to help — with gradual return on merit as the editors involve themselves in other areas of the project. —
- [snip]....
- Sad, reluctant support. I dislike intensely the idea of separating a knowledgeable editor from editing in the field of his expertise. My instincts impel me to say that I would, if possible, prefer a more carefully tailored, nuanced sanction or set of sanctions that could preserve the value of William M. Connolley's editing while addressing the problems that exist with it. (This is an observation I've made about some of the other editors who are being topic-banned as well.) We have also acknowledged that some of the specific assertions made about him previously were inaccurate or taken out of context. However, the "enough is enough" consensus of the committee is clear, and given the entire record here I can hardly say that the overall structure and outcome of the final decision is an outlandish one. Given the result, I hope that William M. Connolley can refocus his dedication to the project in other ways, while addressing the concerns that have been expressed so that he can return to this topic area in due course.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Climate_change/Proposed_decision#William_M._Connolley_topic-banned_.28R3.29
Hat-tip: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2010/10/14/going.html
A step forward, but so many years of misleading innocent readers will not be so readily corrected. Wikipedia, like other utopian ventures, has always been vulnerable to those with few scruples about pursuing their own self-interest with ruthlessness. Even if we see no more Kyoto-style over-reaction to CO2 such as that captured in legislation in the UK (and that seems over-optimistic given the huge momentum of interested parties wanting more of it), there remains the damage to the standing of science and to the practice of both politics and education. I suspect that an oppressive burden of gloom has been imposed on wave after wave of children passing through their school years, with a diet of alarmism based, ultimately, on the speculations of a handful of climate modellers. Speculations that have been contradicted by many observational and theoretical studies, but which nevertheless survive and are vigorously promoted by those for whom they are like a dream come true.
If Wikipedia may be at least pausing its own part that promotional effort, and if even the BBC and the Royal Society have recently indicated at least a tiny embarrassment at their part in it, I like to think, in my optimistic way, that progress is being made.
But meanwhile, in schools and other organisations aimed at children throughout the world, the deliverables of this narrow, 'science is settled', doom-laden agitation about CO2 are pushed at the young. A dream come true for some, a nightmare for others, not least the children.
Monday, 11 October 2010
10-minute trainers on climate nonsense: materials for at least 94 of them
Pierre Gosselin's list of climate nonsenses reached 94 in August. I suppose at least one '10-minute trainer' could be produced from each and every one of them. But who has the freedom to make use of them in a classroom? Will a group of dissident teachers/schools emerge, or must we wait for government approval?
'No science produces more controversy, exaggerations, distortions, follies, and falsehoods than climate science does. In this new list we’ve got
'No science produces more controversy, exaggerations, distortions, follies, and falsehoods than climate science does. In this new list we’ve got
94 climate-gates total
28 new gates
145 links to reports with details.
28 new gates
145 links to reports with details.
The new gates on the list are designated with “NEW!” to make them easy to spot. Thanks to a number of readers who have given me tips.'
The first 10:
1. Acceleration of sea level rise-gate
Claims of accelerating sea level rise are misleading.
2. African agriculture claim-gate
IPCC wrongly claims that in some African countries yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent by 2020.
3. AIT-gate and British High Court
35 errors or gross exaggerations are found in Al Gore’s Oscar winning documentaryAn Inconvenient Truth.
4. NEW! Alaskan glaciers-gate
Loss of glaciers in Alaska was grossly exaggerated.
5. Amazon rainforest-gate and here (NEW!) and here (NEW!)
IPCC cites “robust” source: green activist organisation WWF. WWF’s source was merely an anonymous brief on forest fire risks posted in 1999 and taken down four years later.
6. Antarctic sea ice-gate
Antarctic sea ice underestimated by 50%.
7. NEW! Authoritarian science-gate
The science says… Science is increasingly used as an instrument of authority to impose public policy.
8. NEW! Australia-gate Australia temperature adjusted upwards to show more warming.
9. Bangladesh-gate
IPCC inflates Bangladesh doomsday forecasts in 2007 4AR.
10. NEW! Biofuel-gate
Efforts to save the planet by using bio-fuels are in fact rapidly destroying it.
Claims of accelerating sea level rise are misleading.
2. African agriculture claim-gate
IPCC wrongly claims that in some African countries yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent by 2020.
3. AIT-gate and British High Court
35 errors or gross exaggerations are found in Al Gore’s Oscar winning documentaryAn Inconvenient Truth.
4. NEW! Alaskan glaciers-gate
Loss of glaciers in Alaska was grossly exaggerated.
5. Amazon rainforest-gate and here (NEW!) and here (NEW!)
IPCC cites “robust” source: green activist organisation WWF. WWF’s source was merely an anonymous brief on forest fire risks posted in 1999 and taken down four years later.
6. Antarctic sea ice-gate
Antarctic sea ice underestimated by 50%.
7. NEW! Authoritarian science-gate
The science says… Science is increasingly used as an instrument of authority to impose public policy.
8. NEW! Australia-gate Australia temperature adjusted upwards to show more warming.
9. Bangladesh-gate
IPCC inflates Bangladesh doomsday forecasts in 2007 4AR.
10. NEW! Biofuel-gate
Efforts to save the planet by using bio-fuels are in fact rapidly destroying it.
Link to them all:
Sunday, 10 October 2010
RIP Phillip and Tracey, virtual victims of 10:10's murderous intolerance
The use of children as political fodder for spreading alarm about CO2 is bad enough. Showing them being murdered in cold blood for having parents who do not share that alarm is disgusting. At a time when many people are under daily threat of renewed attack by other intolerant bombers, also obsessed by their cause to the point of losing any trace of humanity, the 10:10 movie was particularly odious.
It served to give us insight into their attitudes, and for that we may be grateful.
Delingpole has a bitter-edged post on suggested actions for today, the 10th of October, 2010:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100058296/1010-who-are-you-going-to-kill-to-help-save-the-planet/
It begins:
'Hey kids, the big day’s here. It’s 10/10/10 and that if you’ve been following the campaign of Franny Armstrong, Richard Curtis, Eugenie and all their other nicely-spoken, privately-educated, Daddy-funded, Guardian-reading trustafarian chums at 10:10, you’ll know that means just one thing: Climate Action.'
The first comment I saw posted under that piece, by 'scientificanomaly' is the inspiration for the title of this one:
'This post is in loving memory of the young martyrs Phillip and Tracy. May they rest in peace. They shall never be forgotten, we shall honour their memory by re-doubling our efforts to consign the AGW climate scam to the dustbin of history and by driving all the deranged eco-bullies out of positions of influence.'
It served to give us insight into their attitudes, and for that we may be grateful.
Delingpole has a bitter-edged post on suggested actions for today, the 10th of October, 2010:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100058296/1010-who-are-you-going-to-kill-to-help-save-the-planet/
It begins:
'Hey kids, the big day’s here. It’s 10/10/10 and that if you’ve been following the campaign of Franny Armstrong, Richard Curtis, Eugenie and all their other nicely-spoken, privately-educated, Daddy-funded, Guardian-reading trustafarian chums at 10:10, you’ll know that means just one thing: Climate Action.'
The first comment I saw posted under that piece, by 'scientificanomaly' is the inspiration for the title of this one:
'This post is in loving memory of the young martyrs Phillip and Tracy. May they rest in peace. They shall never be forgotten, we shall honour their memory by re-doubling our efforts to consign the AGW climate scam to the dustbin of history and by driving all the deranged eco-bullies out of positions of influence.'
Saturday, 9 October 2010
Pushing Junk Science on Children in the USA
More political context for CO2 alarmism getting into schools in the USA is given in this piece: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/10/pushing_junk_science_on_childr.html than in my earlier one here: http://climatelessons.blogspot.com/2010_09_01_archive.html
Extract:
'Democrat Representative John Sarbanes of Maryland wants public schools to "get young people invested" in "climate change" and "population growth" in order to "[raise] awareness early" and "promote the agenda." That would be the agenda of junk science alarmism.
Extract:
'Democrat Representative John Sarbanes of Maryland wants public schools to "get young people invested" in "climate change" and "population growth" in order to "[raise] awareness early" and "promote the agenda." That would be the agenda of junk science alarmism.
Thank goodness for clarity, because until now, Americans were unaware that public schools are supposed to breed fanatics for ruling class politics. Not only has Sarbanes advocated global warming indoctrination, but the congressman's remarks also seem to call for schools to push the debunked overpopulation myth popularized by Paul Ehrlich in his 1970 book, The Population Bomb. Rachel Carson's DDT scare, acid rain, anti-nuclear power hysteria, the population bomb, and the global warming hoax -- the world has been asked to prepare for one faux-disaster after another. In the process, American liberals have used schools and universities to fill young minds with grotesque falsehoods.'
Is there any country in which this corruption of the young is not taking place? Certainly not the UK.
Teachers read this: science has been corrupted by the climate scam
The climate-related machinations of the leadership of the American Physical Society have led to the resignation of one of that society's most distinguished members. Perhaps those in education who cannot bring themselves to question the rectitude of such as the IPCC, the Royal Society, and the Met Office, will be given pause for thought by this:
Sent: Friday, 08 October 2010 17:19 Hal Lewis
From: Hal Lewis, University of California, Santa Barbara
To: Curtis G. Callan, Jr., Princeton University, President of the American Physical Society
To: Curtis G. Callan, Jr., Princeton University, President of the American Physical Society
6 October 2010
Dear Curt:
When I first joined the American Physical Society sixty-seven years ago it was much smaller, much gentler, and as yet uncorrupted by the money flood (a threat against which Dwight Eisenhower warned a half-century ago).
Indeed, the choice of physics as a profession was then a guarantor of a life of poverty and abstinence—it was World War II that changed all that. The prospect of worldly gain drove few physicists. As recently as thirty-five years ago, when I chaired the first APS study of a contentious social/scientific issue, The Reactor Safety Study, though there were zealots aplenty on the outside there was no hint of inordinate pressure on us as physicists. We were therefore able to produce what I believe was and is an honest appraisal of the situation at that time. We were further enabled by the presence of an oversight committee consisting of Pief Panofsky, Vicki Weisskopf, and Hans Bethe, all towering physicists beyond reproach. I was proud of what we did in a charged atmosphere. In the end the oversight committee, in its report to the APS President, noted the complete independence in which we did the job, and predicted that the report would be attacked from both sides. What greater tribute could there be?
How different it is now. The giants no longer walk the earth, and the money flood has become the raison d’être of much physics research, the vital sustenance of much more, and it provides the support for untold numbers of professional jobs. For reasons that will soon become clear my former pride at being an APS Fellow all these years has been turned into shame, and I am forced, with no pleasure at all, to offer you my resignation from the Society.
It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford’s book organizes the facts very well.) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.
So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge? It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it. For example:
1. About a year ago a few of us sent an e-mail on the subject to a fraction of the membership. APS ignored the issues, but the then President immediately launched a hostile investigation of where we got the e-mail addresses. In its better days, APS used to encourage discussion of important issues, and indeed the Constitution cites that as its principal purpose. No more. Everything that has been done in the last year has been designed to silence debate
2. The appallingly tendentious APS statement on Climate Change was apparently written in a hurry by a few people over lunch, and is certainly not representative of the talents of APS members as I have long known them. So a few of us petitioned the Council to reconsider it. One of the outstanding marks of (in)distinction in the Statement was the poison word incontrovertible, which describes few items in physics, certainly not this one. In response APS appointed a secret committee that never met, never troubled to speak to any skeptics, yet endorsed the Statement in its entirety. (They did admit that the tone was a bit strong, but amazingly kept the poison word incontrovertible to describe the evidence, a position supported by no one.) In the end, the Council kept the original statement, word for word, but approved a far longer “explanatory” screed, admitting that there were uncertainties, but brushing them aside to give blanket approval to the original. The original Statement, which still stands as the APS position, also contains what I consider pompous and asinine advice to all world governments, as if the APS were master of the universe. It is not, and I am embarrassed that our leaders seem to think it is. This is not fun and games, these are serious matters involving vast fractions of our national substance, and the reputation of the Society as a scientific society is at stake.
3. In the interim the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. Effect on the APS position: none. None at all. This is not science; other forces are at work.
4. So a few of us tried to bring science into the act (that is, after all, the alleged and historic purpose of APS), and collected the necessary 200+ signatures to bring to the Council a proposal for a Topical Group on Climate Science, thinking that open discussion of the scientific issues, in the best tradition of physics, would be beneficial to all, and also a contribution to the nation. I might note that it was not easy to collect the signatures, since you denied us the use of the APS membership list. We conformed in every way with the requirements of the APS Constitution, and described in great detail what we had in mind—simply to bring the subject into the open.
5. To our amazement, Constitution be damned, you declined to accept our petition, but instead used your own control of the mailing list to run a poll on the members’ interest in a TG on Climate and the Environment. You did ask the members if they would sign a petition to form a TG on your yet-to-be-defined subject, but provided no petition, and got lots of affirmative responses. (If you had asked about sex you would have gotten more expressions of interest.) There was of course no such petition or proposal, and you have now dropped the Environment part, so the whole matter is moot. (Any lawyer will tell you that you cannot collect signatures on a vague petition, and then fill in whatever you like.) The entire purpose of this exercise was to avoid your constitutional responsibility to take our petition to the Council.
6. As of now you have formed still another secret and stacked committee to organize your own TG, simply ignoring our lawful petition.
APS management has gamed the problem from the beginning, to suppress serious conversation about the merits of the climate change claims. Do you wonder that I have lost confidence in the organization?
I do feel the need to add one note, and this is conjecture, since it is always risky to discuss other people’s motives. This scheming at APS HQ is so bizarre that there cannot be a simple explanation for it. Some have held that the physicists of today are not as smart as they used to be, but I don’t think that is an issue. I think it is the money, exactly what Eisenhower warned about a half-century ago. There are indeed trillions of dollars involved, to say nothing of the fame and glory (and frequent trips to exotic islands) that go with being a member of the club. Your own Physics Department (of which you are chairman) would lose millions a year if the global warming bubble burst. When Penn State absolved Mike Mann of wrongdoing, and the University of East Anglia did the same for Phil Jones, they cannot have been unaware of the financial penalty for doing otherwise. As the old saying goes, you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Since I am no philosopher, I’m not going to explore at just which point enlightened self-interest crosses the line into corruption, but a careful reading of the ClimateGate releases makes it clear that this is not an academic question.
I want no part of it, so please accept my resignation. APS no longer represents me, but I hope we are still friends.
Hal
==========================================================
Harold Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, former Chairman; Former member Defense Science Board, chmn of Technology panel; Chairman DSB study on Nuclear Winter; Former member Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards; Former member, President’s Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee; Chairman APS study on Nuclear Reactor Safety Chairman Risk Assessment Review Group; Co-founder and former Chairman of JASON; Former member USAF Scientific Advisory Board; Served in US Navy in WW II; books: Technological Risk (about, surprise, technological risk) and Why Flip a Coin (about decision making)
H/tip: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/08/hal-lewis-my-resignation-from-the-american-physical-society/
Monday, 4 October 2010
10-minute trainer: Hansen's sea-level daydream vs some data
Japanese quality specialists in industry developed the idea of a '10-minute trainer', by which an instructor or a supervisor would have materials ready to take advantage of any downtime in a process to do some teaching about statistical and other insights or techniques relevant to process improvement. The idea is to be ready to take advantage of an unscheduled opportunity to do some teaching. Now in a school of course, teaching is the main process, but sometimes there can be opportunities to go outside of the curriculum. Perhaps this might apply for the senior years in High School, whenever pupils or teachers have the luxury of being able to spend such time. I am taking it as read that the curriculum itself is likely to include considerable misinformation about climate, and so these '10-minute trainers' would only be for those willing to be a little radical. The '10-minutes' is not meant to be taken literally, but rather just to convey a modest amount of time, available with little or no warning. And perhaps somewhere there are, or will be, examination boards and curricula that would not penalise pupils taking science and data seriously, rather than merely parroting pressure group nonsense and associated political 'correctness'.
We could readily build a set of them for teachers willing to engage classes on the realities of climate and/or of pressure groups and their mentors. The recent splattergate movie from 10:10 is a reminder of how zealotry, and the ignoring of real data, can so easily lead to ruthless fanaticism. Using simple data sets can be enough to expose, bit by bit, step by step, the emptiness of the fanatics' approach, and at the same time encourage youngsters to discuss, differ, and think for themselves in a civilised manner.
Steven Goddard's blog has some suitable material today which could readily be built-up into a '10-minute trainer', looking at a doom-laden prediction about sea levels around New York city - a prediction made by leading CO2-agitator, James Hansen in 1988 for the year 2008: (http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/correlating-new-york-sea-level-rise-with-co2/):
(1) The predictions (source:http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/index.html) :
'While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, "If what you're saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?" He looked for a while and was quiet and didn't say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, "Well, there will be more traffic." I, of course, didn't think he heard the question right. Then he explained, "The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won't be there. The trees in the median strip will change." Then he said, "There will be more police cars." Why? "Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up." '
(2) The data (source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/50yr.shtml?stnid=8518750&name=The+Battery&state=New+York): a scatterplot of the rate of sea-level rise (in mm per year) against CO2 concentration
Now class, what can we learn from this? What other data from New York or elsewhere do you think would be helpful to improve our discussion of these predictions? How far would you be willing to extrapolate from a such a scatterplot using higher levels of CO2? Do you think CO2 levels could ever be a reliable predictor of sea level changes? What would a naive extrapolation of the plot predict for the rate of sea level rise today given that CO2 levels have risen further over the past few years? What relevance would rainfall levels or storms have to our discussion? And so on.
Note Added 5 November 2012 Last year, Hansen claimed he never made the forecast for 20 years out, but rather 40 years and the journalist misheard him. An update on the WUWT 2009 post has been made, and shows that even adding another 20 years to the alarming forecast, it still does not look at all plausible.
More analysis on Hansen's alarmism here: http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/james-hansen-1986-within-15-years-temps-will-be-hotter-than-past-100000-years/
We could readily build a set of them for teachers willing to engage classes on the realities of climate and/or of pressure groups and their mentors. The recent splattergate movie from 10:10 is a reminder of how zealotry, and the ignoring of real data, can so easily lead to ruthless fanaticism. Using simple data sets can be enough to expose, bit by bit, step by step, the emptiness of the fanatics' approach, and at the same time encourage youngsters to discuss, differ, and think for themselves in a civilised manner.
Steven Goddard's blog has some suitable material today which could readily be built-up into a '10-minute trainer', looking at a doom-laden prediction about sea levels around New York city - a prediction made by leading CO2-agitator, James Hansen in 1988 for the year 2008: (http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/correlating-new-york-sea-level-rise-with-co2/):
(1) The predictions (source:http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/index.html) :
'While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, "If what you're saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?" He looked for a while and was quiet and didn't say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, "Well, there will be more traffic." I, of course, didn't think he heard the question right. Then he explained, "The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won't be there. The trees in the median strip will change." Then he said, "There will be more police cars." Why? "Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up." '
(2) The data (source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/50yr.shtml?stnid=8518750&name=The+Battery&state=New+York): a scatterplot of the rate of sea-level rise (in mm per year) against CO2 concentration
And of course, now in 2010, 22 years after Hansen's casual (and causal) talk of sea-level rises bringing flooding to New York in 20 years thanks to the 'greenhouse effect' [of CO2], we can easily confirm that it has not yet happened - the West Side Highway is not under water due to higher sea-levels.
(3) Another plot:
(Source: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/the-rumours-of-manhattans-death-are-exaggerated/)
Now class, what can we learn from this? What other data from New York or elsewhere do you think would be helpful to improve our discussion of these predictions? How far would you be willing to extrapolate from a such a scatterplot using higher levels of CO2? Do you think CO2 levels could ever be a reliable predictor of sea level changes? What would a naive extrapolation of the plot predict for the rate of sea level rise today given that CO2 levels have risen further over the past few years? What relevance would rainfall levels or storms have to our discussion? And so on.
Note Added 5 November 2012 Last year, Hansen claimed he never made the forecast for 20 years out, but rather 40 years and the journalist misheard him. An update on the WUWT 2009 post has been made, and shows that even adding another 20 years to the alarming forecast, it still does not look at all plausible.
More analysis on Hansen's alarmism here: http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/james-hansen-1986-within-15-years-temps-will-be-hotter-than-past-100000-years/
Terrorise the children, control the adults: - a behavioural change strategy at work
By those who want to reduce the levels of a trace gas vital for plantlife.
Why? Superficially, because they believe that computer models designed to show a big effect of CO2 actually mean that CO2 has a big effect.
But deep down, it seems more likely that they just hate humanity. Weird, or what?
One day, teachers will refuse to teach the junk 'science' of CO2 alarmism, and the junk geography, sociology, and politics that drive it. They will react with anger when 'sensitise the children', and 'behavioural change', and 'sustainable biodiversity', and 'carbon footprint', and all the other apparatus of indoctrination is pushed at them to push in their classes.
Friday, 1 October 2010
Teacher alert: eco-blackshirts promote the killing of non-conforming adults and children
Is this where CO2-alarmism leads?
KILL! KILL! KILL THE UNBELIEVERS!
See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/sep/30/10-10-no-pressure-film
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FkB4uiizVo
The luvvies in and behind this despicable film are so convinced of the dangers of CO2 in the atmosphere that they wish to kill those who disagree with them, including children. The film ends with gore from an explosion sliding down the screen. The film begins with a schoolteacher calmly blowing up two pupils in her class who decline to give in to her political requests , leaving blood over all the others in the classroom.
Now this is at a time when there is not a single piece of observational evidence that anything at all unusual is happening to climate. The increase in a trace gas is so small that it remains a trace gas. The role of it in the climate system is far from 'settled', with deeply qualified scientists estimating its effect ranging from a small cooling, through negligible to a modest warming. A handful of scientists and programmers have created computer models of climate which include an additional hypothesis of postive feedback involving water vapour. Then and only then do we get more scary scenarios of warming. We also see in the model outputs a remarkable and pronounced hotter zone in the upper troposphere - one that has not been observed. Ordinarily, the scientific method would say - 'model prediction not confirmed by observation, model not good enough'. Some models also predict a hot spot over Antarctica - one that should be clearly detectable by now, but it is not there. None of the models predicted the break in the warming since around 1998 to the present day. None of the models include the fact that many weather station records show no overall warming at all in the past century. The models are not good. They are not fit for prediction. Yet there is nothing else that deserves an alarmed reaction. Nothing. The luvvies want to kill and destroy based on the output of computer models of demonstrably poor quality, in a field where there are substantially different theories about the impact of CO2 on climate. Only those theories which predict a modest to negligible impact have been supported by observations of the real atmosphere.
Hat tip:
http://nofrakkingconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/09/30/blood-gore-against-global-warming/
Note added 8 Nov 2011. I regret the term 'eco-blackshirts' in the title. Although I think such people could readily be recruited, the filmakers themselves did not actually apply real violence to those they deem to be so evil that they, or their children, must be blown up by terrorists acting for the climate cause. They merely promoted such violence.
Note added 3 Dec 2011. Prof Jones of UEA, the notorious climate schemer as revealed by CG1 and CG2, put his department into the 10:10 campaign less than a year before the ugly video was released:
'I am a lot more free to push my environmental interests without ongoing critique of my motives and supposed misguidedness - I've signed my department up to 10:10 campaign and have a taskforce of staff and students involved in it...' (29 October 2009, source: http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/1625.txt)
I wonder if they are still part of it?
Note added 18 Jan 2012. More examples of eco-fascism exposed here: http://toryaardvark.com/2012/01/18/green-environmentalist-wants-eco-gulags-for-climate-change-deniers/
Note added 21 Mar 2012. Essay on eco-fascism here: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/03/eco-fascists-don-their-jackboots.php
Note added 10 April 2012. More writing published in Germany on the links between National Socialism and Green political activists: http://notrickszone.com/2012/04/10/news-magazine-focus-writes-on-the-german-green-movements-very-brown-roots/
Note added 28 April 2012: Violent imagery used by out-of-control EPA bureaucrat: cruxifixion.
"The
Romans used to conquer little villages in the Mediterranean. They'd go
into a little Turkish town somewhere, they'd find the first five guys
they saw and they would crucify them. And then you know that town was
really easy to manage for the next few years."
'A recently surfaced video of an EPA official's rant confirms what many of us already knew about the Obama Administration: they imagine themselves to be the rulers of conquered territories populated by restless barbarians who must be subjugated at any cost, complete with indiscriminate and severe exemplary punishments.'
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/04/if_only_the_romans_had_the_epa_to_crucify_the_dissenters.html
Note added 05 May 2012. Donna Laframboise has noted copies of 'No Pressure' disappearing from YouTube. She has created a Webcite link to the video, and here is another YouTube copy which is currently working: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE3g0i2rz4w&feature=related
Note added 17 April 2014. The close relationship of eco-fanaticism with National Socialism in Hitler's Germany is illustrated by this quotation: '"We recognize that separating humanity from nature, from the whole of life, leads to humankind’s own destruction and to the death of nations. Only through a re-integration of humanity into the whole of nature can our people be made stronger. That is the fundamental point of the biological tasks of our age. Humankind alone is no longer the focus of thought, but rather life as a whole . . . This striving toward connectedness with the totality of life, with nature itself, a nature into which we are born, this is the deepest meaning and the true essence of National Socialist thought."
KILL! KILL! KILL THE UNBELIEVERS!
See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/sep/30/10-10-no-pressure-film
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FkB4uiizVo
The luvvies in and behind this despicable film are so convinced of the dangers of CO2 in the atmosphere that they wish to kill those who disagree with them, including children. The film ends with gore from an explosion sliding down the screen. The film begins with a schoolteacher calmly blowing up two pupils in her class who decline to give in to her political requests , leaving blood over all the others in the classroom.
Now this is at a time when there is not a single piece of observational evidence that anything at all unusual is happening to climate. The increase in a trace gas is so small that it remains a trace gas. The role of it in the climate system is far from 'settled', with deeply qualified scientists estimating its effect ranging from a small cooling, through negligible to a modest warming. A handful of scientists and programmers have created computer models of climate which include an additional hypothesis of postive feedback involving water vapour. Then and only then do we get more scary scenarios of warming. We also see in the model outputs a remarkable and pronounced hotter zone in the upper troposphere - one that has not been observed. Ordinarily, the scientific method would say - 'model prediction not confirmed by observation, model not good enough'. Some models also predict a hot spot over Antarctica - one that should be clearly detectable by now, but it is not there. None of the models predicted the break in the warming since around 1998 to the present day. None of the models include the fact that many weather station records show no overall warming at all in the past century. The models are not good. They are not fit for prediction. Yet there is nothing else that deserves an alarmed reaction. Nothing. The luvvies want to kill and destroy based on the output of computer models of demonstrably poor quality, in a field where there are substantially different theories about the impact of CO2 on climate. Only those theories which predict a modest to negligible impact have been supported by observations of the real atmosphere.
Hat tip:
http://nofrakkingconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/09/30/blood-gore-against-global-warming/
Note added 8 Nov 2011. I regret the term 'eco-blackshirts' in the title. Although I think such people could readily be recruited, the filmakers themselves did not actually apply real violence to those they deem to be so evil that they, or their children, must be blown up by terrorists acting for the climate cause. They merely promoted such violence.
Note added 3 Dec 2011. Prof Jones of UEA, the notorious climate schemer as revealed by CG1 and CG2, put his department into the 10:10 campaign less than a year before the ugly video was released:
'I am a lot more free to push my environmental interests without ongoing critique of my motives and supposed misguidedness - I've signed my department up to 10:10 campaign and have a taskforce of staff and students involved in it...' (29 October 2009, source: http://di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/1625.txt)
I wonder if they are still part of it?
Note added 18 Jan 2012. More examples of eco-fascism exposed here: http://toryaardvark.com/2012/01/18/green-environmentalist-wants-eco-gulags-for-climate-change-deniers/
Note added 21 Mar 2012. Essay on eco-fascism here: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/03/eco-fascists-don-their-jackboots.php
Note added 10 April 2012. More writing published in Germany on the links between National Socialism and Green political activists: http://notrickszone.com/2012/04/10/news-magazine-focus-writes-on-the-german-green-movements-very-brown-roots/
Note added 28 April 2012: Violent imagery used by out-of-control EPA bureaucrat: cruxifixion.
'A recently surfaced video of an EPA official's rant confirms what many of us already knew about the Obama Administration: they imagine themselves to be the rulers of conquered territories populated by restless barbarians who must be subjugated at any cost, complete with indiscriminate and severe exemplary punishments.'
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/04/if_only_the_romans_had_the_epa_to_crucify_the_dissenters.html
Note added 05 May 2012. Donna Laframboise has noted copies of 'No Pressure' disappearing from YouTube. She has created a Webcite link to the video, and here is another YouTube copy which is currently working: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE3g0i2rz4w&feature=related
Note added 17 April 2014. The close relationship of eco-fanaticism with National Socialism in Hitler's Germany is illustrated by this quotation: '"We recognize that separating humanity from nature, from the whole of life, leads to humankind’s own destruction and to the death of nations. Only through a re-integration of humanity into the whole of nature can our people be made stronger. That is the fundamental point of the biological tasks of our age. Humankind alone is no longer the focus of thought, but rather life as a whole . . . This striving toward connectedness with the totality of life, with nature itself, a nature into which we are born, this is the deepest meaning and the true essence of National Socialist thought."
Ernst Lehmann, Biologischer Wille. Wege und Ziele biologischer Arbeit im neuen Reich, München, 1934
See: http://www.spunk.org/library/places/germany/sp001630/peter.html
(hat-tip: commenter esmiff, Apr 16, 2014 at http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/4/15/climate-control-in-the-scottish-express.html#comments )
(hat-tip: commenter esmiff, Apr 16, 2014 at http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/4/15/climate-control-in-the-scottish-express.html#comments )
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