'Facts, Not Fear': helping parents drive out fears of global catastrophe from children misled by their schools.

Amazon

Facts, Not Fear is inevitably out of date, so why promote it here? 

Since it was published in 1996 and 1999, the harm caused by environmental alarmism has arguably increased.  For example, in the UK we have seen a Labour government actively engage in promoting climate alarmism in schools, and the impact of diverting farmland to produce bio-fuels has been tragic on a large scale for the world's poorest people.  At the same time, the case for alarm over carbon dioxide has gone from weak to even weaker.  For example, global mean temperature has doggedly refuse to rise along with the continued rise in carbon dioxide levels, and the computer modellers have had to revise their talk, and their projections, to admit a lower ‘climate sensitivity’.

Even though the case for alarm may soon become widely recognised as inadequate as a basis for policy-making, or indeed most anything else, there will remain the task of cleaning up school curricula tainted by it, and doing something to help children disturbed by it.  This book provides an excellent starting point for both.  I hope the book will be updated and re-published, and it seems all but inevitable that it would be even more effective, relevant, and convincing if it were to be.

I shall do some more posts based on the book, and encourage readers to buy it pending that hoped-for new edition.

The book covers a lot of ground.  Here are the titles of the chapters and the appendices:

1.      A letter to parents. 

2.      Trendy schools.

3.      Last chance to save the planet.

4.      At odds with science.

5.      What are the costs?

6.      World population – will billions starve?

7.      Natural resources – on the way out?

8.      Canadian forests – a wasteland?

9.      The rain forest – one hundred acres a minute?

10.  North American wildlife – on the edge?

11.  Where have all the species gone?

12.  The air we breathe?

13.  A hotter planet?

14.  Sorting out ozone. 

15.  Acid rain. 

16.  Not a drop to drink? 

17.  Don’t eat that apple?

18.  A garbage crisis? 

19.  The recycling myth. 

20.  What we can do. 

A. Textbooks reviewed.

B. Environmental books for children

C. Books for a well-stocked environmental library

D. Academic and Scientific Advisory Panel

The primary authors are Michael Sanera, qualified in political science, and Jane S. Shaw, qualified in economics.  Two researchers at the Fraser Institute provided the customisation for the Canadian edition: Liv Fredricksen and Laura Jones.  Appendix D lists dozens of subject-matter experts who reviewed issue-specific chapters 6 to 19.

To give you an idea of the intentions and style of the authors, here are the last few paragraphs of Chapter 1, A Letter to Parents:  

'How can you give your children a more balanced view of environmental problems?  One way is gently to supply the information that is missing in their classrooms.  This book will give you the facts and insight into scientific controversies that are not covered in the textbooks.

Simply learning that reputable scientists often disagree with the claims of imminent catastrophe will keep your children from blindly fearing the future.  Such information will also help your children see that environmental science is a discipline that reflects scientific uncertainty and is open to continual discovery.  Your children can learn about environmental issues and develop their critical thinking skills at the same time.  As scientists do, they can collect the facts and see whether the theories that have been advanced actually fit the facts.

With this greater objectivity, students can also begin to think critically about the causes of environmental problems, and develop their understanding of human nature.  They won’t be so quick to accept the simplistic claims of catastrophic global destruction.  Your children will probably stop pestering you to take up the cause of the day, or at least they will be willing to consider that their crusade may not be for everyone.

Each chapter concludes with a few questions and answers that will help you summarise the information for your children.  Each also has activities that you and your children might like to read and perhaps try out.  The activities offer concrete evidence that supports the information in the chapter.  However, the activities are merely suggestions that make a richer experience out of a trip to the lumberyard, say, or the supermarket.  We recognise that you are a busy parent, with many goals other than teaching your children environmental science.

Unlike the authors of some environmental books for kids, we don’t expect you or your children to picket a fast-food restaurant or write a protest letter to your local politician.  We think your children should have a chance to learn about the environment rather than be mobilised into trendy campaigns.  This book will help them.’

I think it could.

'Facts, Not Fear': an excellent book for helping you to help your children deal with climate-scaremongering and other eco-propaganda.

Aimed at parents and teachers, this excellent book shows the way to take the sting out of the facile alarmism pushed at the young on climate and other fashionable eco-topics.  First published in 1996 in the States, 'Facts, Not Fear' is bristling not only with counter-arguments to defuse alarm, but also with a structure which could be readily adapted and built-upon for use elsewhere. 

Dozens of copies are available on Abebooks.

 

In 1999, an edition customised for use in Canada was published with lots of local examples to help readers engage with young people and encourage them to take a wider view than those typically presented by zealots promoting alarm for their cause of the day.  This edition is shown on the left and can be obtained via Amazon from various dealers.










I intend to share extracts from this book in further posts.

Note added 03/10/14:   The first three chapters are reproduced on line here:
 http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/books/facts_not_fear/

Climate Teachers: a quiz to pass around the staffroom

If your colleagues mostly read The Guardian and excoriate The Mail on Sunday and Daily Mail, then they are likely to a) be seriously mis-informed about climate change and b) unlikely to have seen this quiz.

10 questions out of hundreds that could be constructed on similar lines are not too many to put someone intent on their coffee off trying them.  The two Tory opportunists in the picture may even provide motivation for them to have a go since I suppose a Guardian-reader will automatically be incensed by them.  In this case, for once, they would be right in their prejudice.

As a bonus poke in the eye, let them see the rest of the page carrying the quiz, but only after they have been softened up by it! 


Hat-tip: Fang Tentmate (email), and for the image, Not A Lot of People Know That.

50 to 1 Project: still in with a chance of proceeding

 One thing we shall need for years to come is good quality materials to help repair the damage done in politics and in education by the past decades of overblown alarmism about CO2.  This video project promises to provide exactly that, and may yet manage to go ahead on a reduced budget.  Here is the latest update:



Donations by credit-card or PayPal can be made here: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/50-to-1-project-the-true-cost-of-action-on-climate-change

Note added 30 May 2013.  Good news - the project is going ahead!  Details here:
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/50-to-1-project-the-true-cost-of-action-on-climate-change?c=activity

Note added 29 July 2013.  It looks like all the interviews and the studio-work  has been completed, and they are going flat-out on animation with a target release date of 'around about' 25th August.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIsBMM0m9Vc&feature=youtu.be

Carter Shreds the Climate Propaganda Pumped Out to Children for Decades

Prof Bob Carter shreds the case for alarm over CO2 and climate in this lecture from 2011, recently put on toYouTube. It is a public lecture on "Climate Context as a basis for Better Policy",
given at the University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, June 2011  (h/t http://spielclimate.blogspot.co.uk/ and through them https://twitter.com/Climate_con/statuses/336167271582035968)


This deserves the 'must-see' label!  Not only does he expose the shoddy science, he also exposes the shoddy policies and shoddy politicking and shoddy PR efforts that have thrived upon it.

This should be recommended viewing for every teacher in the world.

I also think there are seeds in this video for ideas that could be used as and when the 'authorities' get round to creating a decent curriculum on climate for schools.  That might have to precede publishers willing to risk new books aimed at the young, and suitable for schools, with a more realistic and optimistic view of our climate system and our impact on it.

That might include the fact that we have never been in a stronger position than we are now to cope with climate variations.  So parents might like to take the initiative and tell their children that.  There will be troubles ahead from climate, just as there have been in the past.  But we are more ready than ever before to handle them.  Our abundant supplies of affordable energy are part of that.

‘Fifty to One’ sounds like it would make a good resource about climate policy for use in schools

As someone who has not been convinced that recent increases in CO2 are an important or dominating driver of the climate system, I find the speculations about temperature changes as promoted by the IPCC quite hard to get excited about.  However that is not the case with many influential or powerful people – they are very excited indeed, and want us all to put a stop to world development in a dramatic fashion.  Dramatic reductions in fossil-fuel consumption along with dramatic increases in the use of inefficient generation technology such as windturbines, will in my view increase the cost of energy supplies and thus make it harder to cope with climate variation in years to come.

The discussion of climate change is now so heated, and polarised, that it will take remarkable efforts for one side to get through to the other.  This proposed video, 50 to 1, is one such effort, or so it seems to me.  Remarkable because it will take the IPCC methods and use them to demonstrate that the actions proposed to ‘stop climate change’ are many times more expensive than those that would be involved in adapting to it.  About fifty time more, according to some!

The appeal has not reached the halfway mark in sums promised, and we are at the halfway mark of the appeal’s planned duration.  I hope all readers will consider donating.  Lots of small donations might inspire a few huge ones.

Donations by credit-card or PayPal can be made here: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/50-to-1-project-the-true-cost-of-action-on-climate-change

They will only be taken up if a sufficiently large sum is reached to enable the project to proceed.

Note added 30 May 2013.  Good news - the project is going ahead!  Details here:
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/50-to-1-project-the-true-cost-of-action-on-climate-change?c=activity

Children and Carbon Dioxide: don't let the zealots terrorise one by demonising the other.

'Of all of the world's chemical compounds, none has a worse reputation than carbon dioxide. Thanks to the single-minded demonisation of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control of energy production, the conventional wisdom about carbon dioxide is that it is a dangerous pollutant. That's simply not the case. Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity.

The cessation of observed global warming for the past decade or so has shown how exaggerated NASA's and most other computer predictions of human-caused warming have been—and how little correlation warming has with concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As many scientists have pointed out, variations in global temperature correlate much better with solar activity and with complicated cycles of the oceans and atmosphere. There isn't the slightest evidence that more carbon dioxide has caused more extreme weather.'

Extract from a Wall Street Journal piece by Harrison H. Schmidt and William Happer, 8th May, 2013.

'Mr. Schmitt, an adjunct professor of engineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, was an Apollo 17 astronaut and a former U.S. senator from New Mexico. Mr. Happer is a professor of physics at Princeton University and a former director of the office of energy research at the U.S. Department of Energy.'

 

Note added 18 May 2013 Here is a video clip showing Happer participating in a tv discussion triggered by the above letter (h/t Bishop Hill): 

Colorado Climate Nightmare: the recruiting and training of young children to indoctrinate even younger ones in schools

 This gruesome display of young victims performing an absurd and inappropriate  anti-fracking rap to a group of even younger children in Colorado is shocking.  The youngsters in the audience may well shrug it off as a largely incomprehensible diversion from schoolwork, but what of the two performers?



They are victims of an organisation called 'Earth Guardians, which describes itself in these words:

The Earth Guardians are committed to standing up and protecting the Earth, the Water, the Air and the Atmosphere so that our generation, and those to follow, will inherit a healthy, sustainable and habitable planet.

What we have here is a set of adults who have decided that children make good political levers, and who have not hesitated to exploit them for campaigning purposes.

The 'mentors' are here: http://earthguardians.org/team.shtml
The 'council of advisors' is here: http://earthguardians.org/council.shtml

These are irresponsible and ruthless people.  

A news site in Colorado is on to the story, which it currently highlights as 'developing' (hat tip Tom Nelson):

Students receive anti-frack rap at Evergreen Middle school

Let us hope it 'develops' into a major scandal, and that the victims of these self-styled Earth Guardians get more protection, more help, and kept out of other schools. 

 Update added 10 May 2013: From the update at the above link: 

'Lynn Setzer, Communications Director for Jefferson County Schools explained to The Blaze.com that the students in question had been invited to the school for a different purpose, and that the fracking portion of the presentation “wasn’t specifically planned.”

According to The Blaze, “Setzer said the school is sending a letter of apology to parents, along with a list of resources for both sides of the issue for families to discuss. The school will also put in place a procedure to vet guest speakers.” According to letters reviewed by CompleteColorado.com, a vetting procedure to vet guest speakers is precisely what some parents were asking from the district in light of this assembly.'

It looks like the timely and sensible response of the school authorities may well defuse the issue, and so dash my hopes of more attention being given to this event.

Note added 29 May 2013  Pail Driessen provides more details of this shocking event in a Colorado school, and takes a very critical look at the Earth Guardians.  Extract 'But the Earth Guardians still deliver outright falsehoods about fracking, by children to children, in public schools funded by taxpayer dollars. Perhaps this goes on because teachers and school administrators fail to recognize the potential harm, or are themselves devoted to promoting extreme environmentalist ideologies. Certainly they failed to exercise their responsibility and authority as educators to provide a balanced curriculum and avoid being used by groups with political agendas, to inculcate a new generation of Americans in perverse Hard Green dogmas that are harmful to wildlife, people and the environment.'
 http://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2013/05/27/mindless-green-indoctrination-of-children-n1606861/page/full
(also here: http://www.eco-imperialism.com/mindless-green-indoctrination-of-children/ )

Climate Teachers: don't add to the rotten legacy of the environmental movement

Environmentalism has a rotten legacy.  The climate scaremongering is part of it.

(1) Have you checked for yourself  the materials you use to teach about climate?

Teaching children that they face climate catastrophe, or even serious and imminent threats, due to rising levels of carbon dioxide is such a momentous decision that surely any conscientious teacher will at some stage do some checking of his or her own as to the credibility of such assertions.  The journalist Melanie Phillips did just that, and she was not impressed with what she found. 

This article appeared today in Greenie Watch attributed to Melanie Phillips but without a source-link.  It looks like it could be her work to me, and so I am tentatively reproducing it as such here:

I have not yet found the article at source, but the above image as published has this i.dailymail link:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/05/07/article-2320940-19AB0B18000005DC-854_634x407.jpg
Note added later same day: I have tracked the above article down.  It appears without any explanation in this article, which though very moving and important, is not about climate.  I presume it is included because it is in the book just published by Phillips.  A recent article by her on climate is here.

(2) Meanwhile, the campaign continues at high levels and low:

(2.1) Outrageous scaremongering (aka 'climate diplomacy') this month at the UN:

   Note added 12 May 2013.   Collectors of examples of over-the-top alarmism will appreciate this one from 1881: linking up telegraph wires around the globe will cause catastrophe.  Description and commentary here and here.

(2.2) More subtle (but note the scary 'quadrillion') school outreach by the UEA last year (hat-tip Dave W)

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

(3) And for what?  To contribute to the already rotten legacy of environmentalism? 

The Rotten Legacy of Environmentalism 

Under each of these sections taken from the site Bread and Butter Science (created by James A. Marusek) can be found links to examples of harm:

Prolonged Psychological Fear Based on Unfounded/Distorted Claims

Needless Death of over 30 Million Innocent Young Children

Loss of a Dependable Electrical Infrastructure

Dependency on Foreign Oil and Higher Fuel Prices

Endangered Species Act

Starvation

The Agents of Fear

Development of the "Precautionary Principle" into a Fear Distortion Tool

Taking of Property without Just Compensation (Private Lands)

Tying National Security Up in Knots 

Eliminating or Weakening Flood Prevention Systems (Dams, Levies)

Depriving Workers of Their Livelihood

The Law of Unintended Consequences

The Destruction of Credible Science by Promoting Junk Science

The Destruction of Scientist who disagree with the Environmental Agenda

Promoting a Small Utopian World for the Elite through a Population Control Agenda (Isn't this called Genocide?)

Sponsor of Terrorism in the Name of the Environment

School Indoctrination: Driving Fear into the Hearts of Our Children
 and here are the first few links in this last category:

• The Child-Manipulators
• Facts, Not Fear
  • Chapter 1
  • Chapter 2
  • Chapter 3
• The Greening of America's Youth
• Educational Indoctrination, Environmental Style
• PeTA's Propaganda: A Part of the Curriculum!
• Science vs. Propaganda
• School Reverses on Showing of Al Gore Climate Change Film
• Al Gore told there are Nine Inconvenient Truths in his Film
• Students Thrown Climate Life Preserver
• Too Much Fear, Too Few Facts
• Climate Change Scenarios Scare, and Motivate, Kids

 There are dozens more, including a couple to Climate Lessons posts I'm pleased to say.

So, next time you hear the apologist refrain about it doesn't matter if the theory is wrong, it is leading to good things anyway, you might want to dig out this list and share it around.

It makes for a rotten legacy, does it not? 

Climate Education: a chance to sponsor a promising video

 An experienced film-maker is seeking to raise $130,000 to fund the creation of a short (7 minute) video about the notional costs of 'stopping' climate change according to IPCC methods and materials.  Apart from the fatuousness of trying to stop climate change, the notion is also an extremely extravagant one since the costs involved far exceed the expected costs of adapting to the projected conditions that this odious organisation promotes as our likely fate without such expenditure.  Fifty times more according to the calculations of Lord Monckton who is supporting this very worthwhile venture.  I think this video could well be very useable within schools, and so I have made a donation towards the costs.  Watch the promotional video below, and perhaps you will too:



Hat-tip: Bishop Hill
More background information on the proposed video can be found at WUWT:

This video, website and interview combination is a game-changer and could radically shift the climate debate.  But it will only have an impact if a large number of people watch the video.  The video needs to be so fun, fast paced and visually engaging that people will not only watch it, but also pass it on for their friends to watch.  7 minutes is an ideal length because it’s short enough to keep people’s attention, whilst being long enough for us to pack in all the information required to understand the maths and economics behind 50 to 1.  It’s effectively a short film which mixes the presentation of the maths and formulae with animations to illustrate every step along the way AND snippets of interviews with internationally respected experts lending the weight of their professional opinions to the subject.
President Vaclav Klaus, Professor Henry Ergas, Professor Fred Singer, Anthony Watts, Professor David Evans, Christopher Essex, and Joanne Nova have all agreed to be interviewed and we are still waiting to hear back from a few others.  Traveling with a production crew (to North America and Europe and back as well as around Australia) to get the interviews, as well as studio filming, editing, animating, colour grading and audio sweetening costs money.  That’s why I need your help.

Sounds good to me.   I hope he gets all the money he needs.

Contributions can be made by credit-card here, and a PayPal option may also become available.

Note added 6 May 2013.  Payment by PayPal is now available.
Note added 7 May 2013.  An update video clip.  It contains the good news that Donna Laframboise has been added to the list of interviewees.
 

Climate Classroom Library: copy and paste this post to make a bookmark, then buy the book!

Climate Book-Burners












Origin of the picture.

 “The burning of a book is a sad,
sad sight, for even though a book
is nothing but ink and paper, it feels
as if the ideas contained in the book
are disappearing as the pages turn to
ashes and the cover and binding--
which is the term for the stitching and
glue that holds the pages together--
blacken and curl as the flames do their
wicked work. When someone is burning
a book, they are showing utter contempt
for all of the thinking that produced its
ideas, all of the labor that went into its
words and sentences, and all of the
trouble that befell the author . . .”
― Lemony Snicket, The Penultimate Peril

 “Torch every book.
Burn every page.
Char every word to ash.
Ideas are incombustible.
And therein lies your real fear.”
― Ellen Hopkins


 http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/censorship


-----------Cut along here to make your very own bookmark-----------------------------------------------


The book in the picture is called 'The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism', and is by Steve Goreham.
Here is some of his most recent writing republished at WUWT:  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/the-tragedy-of-climatism-resource-misuse-on-a-global-scale/ . 

His book can be bought on Amazon.

It is a lively book, designed and presented to be highly accessible and dipped into anywhere for insights and very quotable observations.  There are lots of photographs, cartoons, charts, and diagrams. It would be a useful resource for any pupil pursuing a project on climate change and/or the associated agitation and panic it has induced in policymakers.

Note added later on 3 May 2013.  It is not just climate blogs that have noticed.  For example, with bold added here:
'Sad but true, mock book burnings appear to be acceptable behavior of professors at San Jose State University.
In this case, Dr. Alison Bridger is doing the honors. She is proudly assisted by SJSU assistant professor Dr. Craig Clements. They disagree with the text’s content.
Drs. Bridger and Clements are currently featured on the front April entry on San Jose State University’s Department of Meteorology and Climate Science web page. They may mysteriously disappear before you read this.
Most certainly they thought what they did was hilarious. Apparently, so did the whole department.
Lousy texts get tossed in the trash every day at universities around the world. But when you make a public statement of it, as San Jose State did, you cross a line. You tarnish any legitimate climate research that institution ever does.
Unfortunately, all they proved is how politics has stained the pristine world of science.'
 http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2013/05/02/book-burning-is-alive-and-well/

Note added 5 May 2013.  More of the same:  http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2013/05/04/san-jose-state-burns-books/

Climate Classroom Wall: use this image to help your pupils get windfarms in perspective

A nuclear industry expert and publisher has had enough of the 'heartwarming images of wind farms' so widely promoted in response to the conjecture that humans are having a dramatic effect on the climate system, and to the political and financial opportunities this conjecture has provided thanks in large part to spin and propaganda. She is Andrea Jennetta, described on her blog as 'the owner and president of International Nuclear Associates, Inc., the publisher of Fuel Cycle Week. She has 25 years working in the nuclear fuel cycle.'  (hat tip: http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/05/01/where-do-wind-turbines-come-from/)

 Here are some of her words to go with the picture.  The rest are here.

'Environmentalists love wind turbines, right? They’re so healthy and good for the environment, so pretty, innocent, clean. Environmentalists love peddling heartwarming images of wind farms basking under sunny blue skies and nestled in the bucolic embrace of verdant hills. People picnic under them, children skip and shout for joy at the sight of them!

But what environmentalists don’t show you is how wind turbines are made. So I will. Here goes: wind turbines are predominantly made of steel, and steel is predominantly made of iron. Manufacturing wind turbines requires extensive mining of iron ore, which means mountains and valleys get ripped to shreds. Not to mention all the other metals such as copper, nickel and  titanium that have to be dug out of ground to build every wind turbine displayed in those heartwarming images.

How do you feel about those pretty wind turbines now? Are they still clean? Are they still green? Are they still heartwarming and bucolic? Hardly. (I could also show you images of carbon-spewing cement factories that produce the cement bases for offshore wind turbines, or steel factories that actually turn iron ore into steel but I’ll save that for another occasion.)

My point isn’t that iron mining is dangerous, toxic or a threat to human civilization. My point is that when anti-uranium zealots bemoan the evils of mining and then make genuflections to a wind turbine, they’re not being straight with you. The fact is that pretty much everything we use in modern life — including every form of renewable energy you can think of — requires the extensive mining of raw materials from the earth. And mining isn’t pretty. But that doesn’t mean it’s unsafe or a threat to your existence. That’s why we have science, technology and smart engineers.'

Note added 29 May 2013  More illustrations of the impact of windfarms : 'In reality, wind energy may well be the least sustainable and least eco-friendly of all electricity options. Its shortcomings are legion, but the biggest ones can be grouped into eight categories.'
See: 'http://www.challengingclimate.org/story/4210/4331/Our-least-sustainable-energy-option

Targeting Children for the Cause of Acute Climate Alarm over CO2 - will the zealots ever stop?

Two new pieces in the Yale Climate Media Forum were announced yesterday.

Parenting in an Age of Climate Change:Communicating the Tough Truths to Children
by Allison Guerette & John Wihbey

Climate Change Included in Science Teaching Guidelines
by Lisa Palmer








(The editor, Bud Ward, is not a neutral observer of the climate change fiasco. For example, he is one of the jurors for something called the Schneider Award, and they unanimously gave it to James Hansen last year.  I wonder if it is awarded to whoever was deemed to be the best at creating Schneiderian Scenarios - 'scary', 'simplified', 'dramatic' - with which to engage our attention?  Hansen would surely be a frequent contender if so.)

There is a lot to be studied in these two articles, and I hope to get back to them next week.  In the meantime, Tom Nelson has picked up on one point, and I have spotted another.  Here they are:

 (1) Inoculating children against ideas disturbing to the zealotry

Tom Nelson 
 Good question: How can left-wing teachers "inoculate" children so that they don't believe it when their parents tell them that CO2 doesn't cause bad weather?

From 'Parenting in an Age of Climate Change: Communicating the Tough Truths to Children | The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media':

"In a 2010 address to the National Science Teachers Association, Lynne Cherry, author and director of the Young Voices on Climate Change films, put forward the following prescription for dealing with climate change issues and the sometimes-pernicious influence of media:

How we can respond to the current onslaught against climate change in the media? We can “inoculate” kids by having them not just learning about climate science but actually going outdoors and doing climate science."

(2) On a 'steadily-rolling disaster' calling into question 'the very way we live'
The text in quotes is taken from the second paragraph of the article by Guerette & Wihbey linked to earlier.  I have submitted a comment on it.  If past experience is anything to go by, it will not appear*.  So here it is, with italics and emboldening added:

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

April 24, 2013 at 3:23 am

 

Quote “Climate change offers a unique parenting challenge: a steadily-rolling disaster to which we all contribute, punctuated by periodic events and mounting scientific evidence. It calls into question the very way we live and the world we will leave for our children.”

Well, the absence of warming over most of the past two decades does not look to me like a ‘steadily-rolling disaster’, nor does the drop in hurricane activity, nor does the absence of anything extraordinary happening anywhere in weather, ice extents, or sea levels and temperatures.

We most assuredly will face climate-linked challenges in the years to come – we always have and we always will. But I rather think we would be better prepared to deal with them by doing more of the most successful ‘way to live’ the world has ever seen.

I think you would all do better to leave the children out of this squabble, and try your best to protect their childhood from political interference.

*Note added 25 April 2013  Hurray I was wrong! The comment has appeared, and a response to it.  Hope springs eternal.  Pushed for time at the moment but will try to get a reply in before the end of today, after which I will have no chance to do so for several days.

Note added later on 25 April.  Here is my reply:

'Thank you for responding, Leiran.  I followed the link you gave, but I found nothing there to disabuse me of my ‘facts’. I saw the charts showing changes, but since climate always changes I would expect to see such charts. If we could contrive this by some magic, at just about any period in our atmosphere's history, we would find such charts.  Depending on the space and time scale you choose to focus on, we are typically warming or cooling, seeing ice extents vary, and so on, over days, decades, and centuries. On the grander scale of millions of years, we can see that generally the planet has been warmer than now, and  that over thousands of years, that we are in an overall cooling trend within our relatively warm phase, the Holocene interglacial, of the current ice age.

I do not see an indication of a ‘dramatic global temperature increase’ following the industrial revolution.  I do see a gentle one since the end of the Little Ice Age, say from about 1850 onwards.  And within that, I see nothing to convince me that the remarkable rise in ambient CO2 levels since the 1970s has had any discernible effect – the rises in the first part of the 20th century being somewhat similar in rate and size as those which occurred later under higher CO2 levels.  Nor, in my innocence, would I expect CO2 to have a major influence.  It is a trace gas whose contribution to the brief delaying of heat loss from the Earth’s surface to space is very modest compared with the contributions of airborne water in all its phases.  It also does not seem to contribute much at all to the great heat engine of the climate system – the daily transfer of heat from the tropics towards the poles, a system which dominates our weather and in which water plays a very important role. 

I first started on a serious study of the climate system in the mid 1970s, and after a gap of some decades, I am getting back to it now.  So please be assured my remarks are not casual, nor are they intended to be provocative.  I have not been convinced that there is sufficient reason to be alarmed about CO2, and I have looked on with bemusement at the strange mix of severely damaging policy proposals and actions passed with great assurance by some while the climate really does go on behaving pretty much as if the additional CO2 doesn’t really matter very much.  Just like Prof Lindzen expected it to.  Let me commend this report of a talk by him from 1989 to you: http://www.fortfreedom.org/s46.htm

My bemusement turns to horror, dismay and sometimes anger when I see the same sort of assurance bringing scare stories to the young about climate threats attributed to mankind’s influence.   That seems to me to be an abandonment of a basic adult responsibility to protect children from terrifying beliefs about their world when the grounds for such beliefs are so flimsy. '

Note added 5 May: the reply did not get past the moderator!  But a good couple of comments from Barry Woods did - see comments below.
Note added 8 May: I just tried again to post a comment, using only the first two paragraphs of the one above in case a shorter comment has more chance of success.

Hold Fast, South Dakota – keep facile and destructive climate alarmism out of your schools!

An informative article in South Dakota's Argus Leader presents the dilemma facing education administrators in that State as they prepare to debate and decide on whether to adopt 'The Next Generation Science Standards' as released earlier this month..

The Argus Leader article notes

"A core idea in the standards is that “human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming).”

“That idea is not controversial among the 41 scientists and educators who wrote the standards. But many politicians consider man’s influence on global climate change to be unresolved.”

And goes on to note:

“Three years ago, the South Dakota Legislature passed a nonbinding resolution that urged public schools to take a “balanced approach” when teaching climate change. It asserted the science on the subject is unsettled, open to interpretation and prejudiced by politics.”

There is wisdom here.  But it is under threat from the new curriculum being offered to all States.  It may or may not be adopted in South Dakota:

"Mary Stadick Smith, deputy secretary for the Department of Education, said there is no timeline for the agency’s review of the standards.“We need to review them carefully and we’re going to move forward cautiously to make sure these are the right things for our students,” she said."

 She is being reasonable.

The simple-minded view that human contributions in particular, and rising CO2 levels in general, are major drivers of ‘global warming’ has received criticism for decades from scientists, and Mother Nature has helped them along by refusing to cooperate with the dramatically rising temperature plots produced, after a great deal of pampering, by global climate models (GCMs), and widely promoted by such as the IPCC.

Two reports published this month in Europe add yet more weight to the case for admitting the complexity of the climate system and the importance of many other factors influencing it.  Factors which by and large the IPCC claims little knowledge of, and which the GCMs can’t handle at all or can’t handle at all well. 

Here are the key points recently presented by 4 professors from universities in Belgium:

“The authors of this contribution were recently been granted the honour of presenting their point of view as climate sceptics at the Royal Academy of Belgium. During a series of six well-attended lectures we showed, among other things, that:

1. The climate has always changed. This was true during ancient times and it has also been true since the beginning of the modern era. These climate changes have always been, and still are, independent of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere;
2. During Roman times and the Middle Ages temperatures were observed well in excess of those currently experienced. From the 16th till the 19th century a cold period referred to as the “Little Ice Age” predominated. All these changes took place without mankind being held responsible. We believe that the increase in temperatures that occurred during a certain part of the 20th century is the result of a recovery from this cold period. These various events can be explained by a combination of warm and cold cycles of different magnitudes and duration. Why and how this happens is not yet fully understood, but some plausible explanations can be put forward;
3. The so-called “abnormally rapid” increase in global temperatures between 1980 and 2000 is not unusual at all. There have in fact been several such periods in the past, during which temperatures rose in a similar manner and at comparable rates, even though fossil fuels were not yet in use;
4. Temperature measurements do not necessarily correlate with a building up or a decrease in heat since heat variations are energy changes subject to thermal inertia. Apart from heat many other parameters have an influence on temperature. Moreover the measurement of temperatures is subject to numerous large errors. When the magnitude and plurality of these measurement errors are taken into account, the reported increase in temperatures is no longer statistically significant;
5. The famous “Hockey-stick” curve, known as the Mann’s curve and presented six times by the IPCC in its penultimate report, is the result among other things of a mistake in the statistical calculations and an incorrect choice of temperature indicators, i.e. proxies. This lack of scientific rigour has totally discredited the curve and it was withdrawn, without any explanation, from subsequent IPCC reports;
6. Even though they look formidably complex, the theoretical models employed by the climate modellers are simplified to the extreme. In fact there are far too many (known and unknown) parameters that influence climate change. At the moment it is impossible to take them all into account. The climate system is extremely complex, containing not only chaotic components but also numerous positive and negative feedback loops operating according to various different time scales. Which is why the IPCC wrote in its reports that: “…long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible” (page 774, Third report). This is very true. To this day all the climate predictions based upon these models have turned out to be totally incorrect. Strangely, nobody seems to care;
7. The relationship between CO2 and temperature, obtained from the Vostok ice cores, shows that a building up of CO2 occurs 800 to 1000 years after an increase in temperature is observed. Hence the increase in the concentration of CO2 is a consequence of the warming of the climate, not its cause;
8. But the coup de grâce to the “warmists’ theory” – certainly not yet visible in the French and Belgian media – comes from the observation that for the past fifteen years or so the global temperature of the Earth has remained constant. During the same period CO2 emissions have increased by far more than in the past, reaching an unparalleled record this year. Honest climate scientists admit that this observation is an embarrassing inconvenience for their theory. However, attempts to make us believe that the Earth is continuing to warm up persist. Will we have to wait for another twenty, twenty-five or thirty years for the global warming advocates to finally admit that there is no unambiguous correlation between the global temperature of the Earth and human-generated CO2 emissions?
9. The claim that Hurricane Sandy is due to human CO2 emissions is totally unfounded and has been vigorously contested by numerous meteorologists. This regrettable distortion of the facts has been denounced in an open letter, addressed to the General Secretary of the UN and signed by more than 130 world-renowned scientists, including one of the present authors;
10. Finally the “abnormal” melting of the Arctic Sea ice, that made the headlines of numerous journals during this summer, was also observed during previous decades. Amazingly the record high increase in Antarctic Sea ice that occurred at exactly the same time has been completely ignored by the very same media. Moreover, no mention has been made of the current, particularly rapid, regeneration of the Arctic Sea ice.

These ten statements are facts. We would be ready to accept that they could be wrong, if evidence were presented to scientifically disprove them. In the meantime, and in view of the lack of coherence and unreliability associated with the numerous predictions made by the IPCC, it is time to set the record straight. The public and politicians must be informed about the hypothetical character of the predominant ‘consensus’ on climate change, which has been uncritically disseminated in the media for more than ten years. If it ever existed, this so-called “climate change consensus” has now been totally undermined by the facts."

Source: http://www.thegwpf.org/belgian-scientists-double-standards-climate-change/

Also this month, from further north in Europe, from Norway comes another report full of trenchant and well-supported criticisms of the simple-minded view of the climate system which has so exercised decent people as well as political and financial opportunists of many kinds over recent decades:

“To illustrate the way that scientific, political and ethical concerns are mixed in the debate on Anthropogenic Global Warming this report used the by now famous quote from Gro Harlem Brundtland, that ”doubt has been eliminated”, and that it is ”irresponsible, reckless and deeply immoral to question the seriousness of the situation” as a point of departure. 

The goal of the report was to enter this debate and “battlefield” of arguments and take stock of the debate about anthropogenic (man-made) global warming. Based on the present review of this debate there are several conclusions to be drawn. The first and simplest one is that considered as an empirical statement, the assertion that “doubt has been eliminated” on AGW is plainly false.“

Source: http://www.sintef.no/upload/Teknologi_og_samfunn/Teknologiledelse/SINTEF%20Report%20A24071,%20Consensus%20and%20Controversy.pdf

Hat tip for the two reports: Global Warming Policy Foundation.


Hat tip for the newspaper report from Dakota: Tom Nelson

Climate Control brings a new dawn for People Control (aka totalitarianism), and even children can help.

A. Suppose you happen to have an urge to control the lives of others in all the important details, but that you need a bit of cooperation from them at first.

B. Suppose you have found a topic by which to catch their attention, indeed by which to scare them and make them worried about their future.

C. Suppose, furthermore, you have spotted that most people love nature, and do not want to harm wildlife, and therefore are predisposed to admire and support those people who make it their life’s work to help out the world’s flora and fauna.

Question 1. Where do you go?  What organisation might you join to further your ambitions?

Answer 1. That’s easy. A lot of suitable organisations have sprung up or transformed themselves to take advantage of the new opportunity.

They too discovered that topic in B.  It is of course airborne carbon dioxide, a trace gas in the atmosphere vital to plant life, and thence to virtually all life.  The levels of it have been increasing, and simple calculations suggest that could one day, perhaps by the end of this century,  make the world a little bit warmer, perhaps as much as about one to two degrees centigrade on average*.  Which, if the similarly warmer Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period are anything to go by, would be good news all round: more agricultural land, longer growing seasons, possibly reduced storminess and more predictable monsoons, reduced heating bills in the heavily-populated colder countries, and so on. 

But wait, how is that scary?  Well of course it is not. Quite the reverse.   

But what if you could program up computer models purporting to reflect the climate system, and include in them, not the rising CO2 levels (because that is actually way beyond their capacity to model) but instead a presumed overall effect of suppressing heat loss from the planet to outer space? As well as not being able to model CO2, these computer models can’t model clouds, nor solar variations, nor many features of the ocean very well.  That means there are lots of adjustable parameters to play with.  With a bit of luck, out of the shambles that can result from trying to model such a horribly complex system, you can with a bit of pampering ( ‘flux adjustment’ for example) get outputs that look something like some aspects of our climate.  If you keep the handling of water vapour nice and simple – just let it go up with temperatures, then you might see a positive feedback appear which leads, amidst the spaghetti tangle of very varied projections, to some which give end of the century mean temperature increases of 5 or 10 or 15C.  Bingo!   

Now get the spinners in to write lurid tales of doom and disaster (what a leading guru of this new climate movement called ‘scary’, ‘dramatic’, ‘simplified’ scenarios).  Engage  policy-makers with helpful ‘summaries’ and these vivid scenarios.  Soon the money will be flowing in the right direction as simple (or is it venal?) politicians swing into action in pursuit of the clear advantages they can see for themselves and their causes.  Before you know it, whole political classes will be on board.  Charities once concerned primarily with the poor, or with wildlife, will push all that to one side and champion ‘climate change’ as the big issue, the biggest money-earner they have ever seen. 

So, by way of example, let's say you join the WWF (the organisation formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund).  Lots of jobs there, some with six-figure salaries – this is a wealthy multinational corporation now.

You’ve missed the pioneering years of this great fund-raising.  But you still want to do your bit.  You want to help secure the gains and, don’t forget, you have all these ambitions about control at the back of your mind.

Question 2. What next?  Where should you concentrate your efforts?

Answer 2. That’s easy too.  Who are easier to scare, children or adults?  Well, yes the children.  So there you go.  Scare the children into supporting your ambitions, and not only will that be good for your pension and career prospects in the longer-term, it will also help in the immediate future.  You see some of the children will go home and shame and pester their parents and so they in turn will be more likely to support your political goals.

Google ‘wwf children climate change’ and you’ll get a couple of million hits to help give you ideas. 

But I just want to draw attention to one perhaps less obvious opportunity (hat tip Donna Laframboise): work with slum children in a developing country.  There’s surely a nicely vulnerable group to get started with.  It may also be a way to tap into EU funds.

Never mind that those children have more serious, more real, and more challenging problems to look forward to, and that their parents are tackling them now.  No never mind that.  Planet needs saving.  Do what we say. Before it is too late.

You’ll soon learn the score, and it will give you an early experience of control over others – that’s what you want after all.  For more details of this opportunity, visit http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/04/19/latest-from-the-wwf-eco-indoctrination-of-slum-kids/

*Note added 22 April 2013 Here are the simple calculations, widely used, deployed by distinguished physicist Will Happer.
Extract, referring to delta-T-2, the expected temperature rise from a doubling of CO2 levels: 
' In fact, the basic physics of the CO2 molecule makes it hard to justify a number much larger than ∆T2 = 1 C – with no feedbacks. The number 3 C comes from various positive feedback mechanisms from water vapor and clouds that were invented to make the effects of more CO2 look more frightening. But observations suggest that the feedbacks are small and may even be negative.'
Further illustration is given here.

For the Climate Classroom Wall: actual versus doomsters' projected global mean temperatures

 The so-called settled science and the associated computer models produce the rising spaghetti spread of outputs you can see in the the diagram below just published by Roy Spencer (hat-tip Bishop Hill).  This variation is there despite the pampering of the models, and the careful orchestration and selection of their runs and outputs around the world.  The alarmed ones credit the rising temperatures to rising levels of CO2.  But they do not include CO2 in the models as an active participant in the simulations.  Instead a presumed effect of the CO2, grandly labelled an 'external forcing' despite it being clearly internal to the climate system, is added and the models are run to watch how they adjust.  The added effect is done by reducing, suddenly, the rate at which radiative energy escapes the model atmosphere.  As you might expect, and as the alarmed ones hope, model temperatures then tend to rise and thereby inspire those who wish scare children and disturb adults with tales of impending doom.

Source: Spencer

 The early part of the chart shows some alignment with estimated actual mean temperatures in the lower troposphere derived from satellite observations (UAH, RSS), but this is not due to the predictive skill of the models so much as the parameter adjustment skills of the modellers trying to get good fits to past observations.  Spencer does not report on when the forecasting part of the model outputs begin on these plots, but in the comments below his post he guesses that it may be no later than 2007.  Ignoring the 1998 spike widely attributed to a very strong El Nino, the sustained divergence of actual from model seems to begin in about 1995.

Note also that there are other forecasts of global mean temperatures that have a better track record so far than the climate models.  Here are two:

(1) Global surface temperatures projected from 2007 model runs are shown in the green band.  The blue (cyan) band is for the empirically-fitted model by Scafetta in which he merely makes a combination of past, observed cycles in temperature plus ad adjustment to reflect the overall warming of the 20th century.  The thick red line changing to thick blue is derived from observations. The thick black line shows Scafetta's model projected into the future.  So far, it is doing a lot better than the multi-million pound GCMs.   I reckon Scafetta's model could be run on a decent programmable calculator such as this one costing about £30.

 (2) An even less expensive prediction model is the basic persistence one devised by an expert in forecasting techniques after working through a checklist of what it takes to produce forecasts based on best practices (a checklist against which the climate forecasts of such as the IPCC fail dramatically).  This expert was so dismayed by the poor basis for forecasts made by the IPCC and taken up by such as Al Gore, that he announced a public bet over whether Gore's claim of a 3C rise by the end of the 21st century (and this is at the moderate end of IPCC predictions) could beat a simple persistence forecast.  In the 63 months since the bet began, the persistence forecast has done better in 55 of them.  Details are here: The Global Warming Challenge. 

These plots can help your pupils regard the IPCC, and assorted CO2 alarmists in general with the contempt they deserve.  They may have to regurgitate their 'science' to pass exams, but they can treat it like theology rather than science - the exam answers are then more about the faith of the alarmed ones than about science or the world outside of their expensive but woefully inadequate General Circulation Models (GCMs).

Note added 20 April 2013  Taking the model outputs seriously, because to do so suits them very much, alarmed ones have made many blunders.  Pierre Gosselin has assembled a collection relating to their confident assurances re warmer winters for Europe.  Examples can be seen here: http://climatelessons.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/climate-teachers-have-you-seen-any-of.html