Good News: CO2-based climate alarm is humbug. Bad News: that humbug is still being promoted in schools.

Even as the case for alarm over CO2 is being shredded by experts and by Mother Nature herself, new ways are being sought to push that alarm into schoolchildren.  Here is one being funded by the EU this year:

“The Institute of Education at the University of Reading is welcoming more than 300 school children for an exciting and innovative programme of climate change activities which combine science, maths, history and modern languages.”

The insinuation that carbon dioxide released by human actions is a major driver of climate change is a shibboleth of some standing in political and educational circles.  The EU in particular has seized upon it, despite the harm such beliefs have already brought to European countries.

Climate dogma from the EU

 “Climate change is happening now: temperatures are rising, rainfall patterns are shifting, glaciers and snow are melting, and the global mean sea level is rising. We expect that these changes will continue, and that extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as floods and droughts will become more frequent and intense.” 

 Source: European Environment Agency

Let us examine each phrase in sequence:

“Climate change is happening now:”   This statement has been true since the Earth had an atmosphere.  Our climate varies on all relevant space and time scales.  The remark, in other words, is a platitude.

“temperatures are rising,”   No doubt, somewhere they are, and somewhere they are not. They never stay the same anywhere over any time period.  Estimates of global mean temperatures show two similar periods with rising trends in the 20th C,  a period of relative cooling in between, and more recently a flattening out.

“rainfall patterns are shifting,”   They always do – they are part of the variability in our climate system.  For scientific studies showing that recently observed changes do not match those promoted by climate alarmists, see CO2 Science's subsection on precipitation. For example:

 “Australian researchers report discovering that "on average, dry regions/months became wetter and wet regions/months became drier over the 1940-2009 period," and they say that "this conclusion holds in all available databases and also holds for 1940-1999." In addition, they further remark that the patterns observed "show no relationship to local or global changes in temperature," and that "if anything, these results constitute a slight decline in meteorological drought over the last 70 ears."

“glaciers and snow are melting,”   Of course they are.  They do this every year.  But nothing much by way of systematic change can be seen in data on snow coverage, and the major ice mass in Antarctica continues to grow as found, for example, in this study: 

“At this point in time, however, we can safely conclude that the climate-alarmist claim of dramatic global flooding of earth's coastal areas in response to the melting of polar ice due to global warming has been thoroughly discredited, for during the period of time that they claim the planet experienced the warmest temperatures of the past two millennia, Antarctica experienced a net buildup of ice that actually removed water from earth's seas.” 

“and the global mean sea level is rising.”   It has been on a slow rising trend for the past 150 years, well before the marked rise in CO2 levels of recent decades. This is a surprisingly complex area since sea level variations differ appreciably by location as well as by time.  Here is an example of a study expressing some of the complexities:
“With respect to the results of their analysis, Jevrejeva et al. say their findings show that "global sea level rise is irregular and varies greatly over time," noting that "it is apparent that rates in the 1920-1945 period are likely to be as large as today's." In addition, they report that their "global sea level trend estimate of 2.4 ± 1.0 mm/yr for the period from 1993 to 2000 matches the 2.6 ± 0.7 mm/yr sea level rise found from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data."

With respect to what Jevrejeva et al. describe as "the discussion on whether sea level rise is accelerating," their results pretty much answer the question in the negative; and in further support of this conclusion, they note that "Church et al. (2004) pointed out that with decadal variability in the computed global mean sea level, it is not possible to detect a significant increase in the rate of sea level rise over the period 1950-2000," as is clearly evident from the bottom portion of the above figure[shown here on the left].”

“We expect that these changes will continue,”  There will certainly continue to be changes.  That is merely another platitude.  If they are instead expecting recent trends to continue, they presumably expect cooler temperatures, reduced hurricane activity, more greening of the Sahara, improved crop yields in India and China, further reduction in the rate of sea level rise, further increases in the polar bear population, increased ice mass, more snow in the northern hemisphere and so on.  These trends are not the friends of the climate dogmatists.

“and that extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as floods and droughts will become more frequent and intense.”   They have not done so far, and there are good grounds to believe that they would be worse in a cooler climate than in a warmer one.  Here is some informed commentary on the matter:

“In spite of all the media hype about the rising economic impact of each new year's normal share of weather and climate extremes (which many insurance companies love to hype as well), there is really nothing unusual about the weather and climate extremes themselves.  Consequently, if the globe truly is warming (for whatever reason), it must therefore be concluded, on the basis of this empirical evidence, that warming does not bring an increase in extreme weather or climate events.  And if this be true, which it is, where are all the catastrophic consequences we are regularly told must assuredly follow increasing global temperatures?  Like the emperor's new clothes, they're just not there.”

Climate outreach funded by the EU in schools

The above example of EU propaganda does not bode well for the content of anything they would willingly fund about climate for our schools.  Here is more about the Reading University initiative which has been been funded by the EU (hat-tip Tom Nelson):

'Over the 3 week  programme, which began on the 3rd June, students aged between 9 and 15 are debating, experimenting and interacting to learn about the history of climate change, the main causes, and the overall impacts that climate change might have on them and the wider world.

Be Afraid Ye Little One!

The activities see children working in teams with coloured balls to simulate the way that carbon moves between atmosphere, ocean and plants in the carbon cycle. Washing up liquid bubbles filled with methane are exploding in a burst of brilliant yellow flame to give a dramatic demonstration of the amount of energy in fossil fuels (all within Health and Safety – of course). 

John Oversby, leader of the EU Changing with the Climate Project, says: “This unique collaboration between outstanding teachers at the start of their careers is a shining example of the kind of creativity and innovation in education that we encourage at the Institute.”

But what of the substantial content of this programme?  We can learn about it here in a progress report in 2012 coordinated by Oversby himself.  Here is an extract from the Executive Summary, and it reveals this as just another effort to produce 'little climate activists':

'The impact of global warming arises primarily from our usage of fossil fuel at local level such as in heating our homes or providing our transport as a by-product of their combustion is carbon dioxide. It is this gas together with other greenhouse gases which congregate in the upper atmosphere and by absorbing some of the earth’s radiation, results in global warming. Consequently changing with the climate is likely to be the defining global concern of the 21st Century. The world is likely to build so many fossil-fueled power stations, energy guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the chance of combating dangerous climate change will be lost forever. 

This network has therefore been initiated to link students in both primary and secondary schools across Europe to discuss, engage and commit to undertake actions to limit the change in climate. 

The network comprises schools and teachers in six European countries willing to include climate change topics and issues within their school lessons. With the support of the network partners and associate members, this will result in a deeper understanding of a global concern and lead to actions which will initiate the transition to a more sustainable use of energy.'

More background on this shameless indoctrination can be found in the report itself, and here: http://www.changingwithclimate.info/

What is to be done about the dogma?

In an excellent article published a few days ago (hat-tip Greenie Watch), and well worth reading for further support to the perspective being made in this post, Paul Driessen concludes as follows:

‘We need to save our environment from environmentalists and EPA - and safeguard our liberties, living standards and lives against the arrogance of too-powerful politicians and bureaucrats. How we achieve this, while protecting our lives and environment from real risks, is one of the greatest challenges we face.’

 To modify this for the context of this post, I would use ‘the EU’ instead of the EPA, and I would add ‘children’ to the list of what we need to safeguard.

Our climate dogmatists can be refuted by Mother Nature.  Already it is the case that no child in school has experienced a world with ‘global warming’ in their lifetime.  Further warming may of course resume, and if it does, no doubt a big deal will be made of it – a deal far bigger, far far bigger than the ‘deal’ being made about the modest cooling we have seen in recent years.  Given the harm that lower temperatures can bring, it seems harsh to wish for the downward trend to continue for a few more years.  But what more effective way is there to rid the political world, and then the educational one, of the hideous dogma of CO2-driven alarmism?

Background Briefing for Teachers of Climate Studies: 10 Reasons why Man-Made Global Warming is Wrong.

 Re-blogged from http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/man-made-global-warming-wrong-ten.html

Man-Made Global Warming WRONG - The Ten Reasons.

10 Reasons why Man-Made Global Warming is Wrong.

by COHENITE

1 Temperature

CO2 emissions by humans are supposed to increase the temperature; that is the basic point of man-made global warming [AGW]. The more CO2 in the atmosphere the hotter it should get. That is a basic AGW prediction. It is isn’t happening. Walter Brozek analyses the official temperature data from all the main sources including the satellites. Brozek uses 2 criteria; the first from NOAA to test for flatness or zero warming; the second from Dr Phil Jones to test for no statistical warming; the 2 criteria overlap with the second allowing for some slight warming and the first for even cooling. The first shows zero temperature for 15 years; the second for up to 23 years. The first is climatically significant by NOAA standards, the second by Dr Santer’s standards. This means the temperature is not being caused by AGW. The only line going up is CO2:

Link available HERE,

2 Models. 

AGW science is based on modelling which in turn is based on certain assumptions about the effect on climate of various factors such as CO2. This effect is expressed as a forcing and can be seen at the IPCC website. Note how the forcing expected from CO2 is nearly 20 times greater than from the sun. Predictions about how these forcings will determine temperature have been around for a long time and can therefore be checked. Roy Spencer has checked the model predictions against the temperature in the Troposphere: 

Roy Spencer Graph.

Some will say Roy’s comparison only shows the models can’t predict the Troposphere. But as Bob Tisdale shows the models also can’t predict sea surface temperatures,  land and sea surface temperatures, or precipitation. Nor can they, as Koutsoyiannis showed, predict the past.

3 The sun (1).

 AGW science says the sun has little effect on temperature compared with CO2 forcing. Dr Ka-Kit Tung disagrees and has compared the long-term solar record with the longest temperature record on the planet, the Central England Temperature [CET]. The final image in Tung’s slide presentation is revealing and shows a remarkable correlation between the CET record and Total Solar Irradiation [TSI]. This correlation between temperature and TSI has also been derived in 2 other studies. The first is by Glassman at Figure 1 where he uses global HADCRUT3 data. The second is by Stockwell at Figures 4-7 where all the major land-based temperature indices are shown to correlate with TSI using his model. Stockwell’s model is simply that temperature responds to TSI mean with the rate of temperature increase/decline determined by the movement away from the mean.

4 The sun (2). 

A new study from Spain, the home of solar power and national bankruptcy, shows how variations in solar radiation correlate well with temperature without any need for AGW. The increase is due to cloud variation. Of course Monckton was on top of the role of clouds and temperature when he debated Tim Lambert  - and Lambert sprung that infamous ambush about Pinker being a woman not a man. What was overlooked was the fact that Monckton was correct. Pinker et al had found that solar forcing through cloud variation was sufficient to explain all the temperature increase from the 1980’s onwards. This should come as no surprise really because it is exactly what the IPCC in TAR had found too.

5 The sun (3). 

Hood et al’s 2013 paper shows how slight variations in TSI have an amplified effect on the ocean, land and stratosphere. This amplification occurs or begins regionally and can produce seemingly contradictory results such as the ‘warming’ Arctic and a freezing Europe which the AGW supporters are saying is merely how AGW works. Of course this is the complete opposite of what the AGW supporters used to say. Who can forget Dr Viner predicting an end to winter snow in the Northern Hemisphere generally and particularly in England? NASA’s Drew Shindell noticed this solar amplification back in 2002; Shindell said:

“In our simulations, we find that the reduced brightness of the Sun during the Maunder Minimum causes global average surface temperature changes of only a few tenths of a degree, in line with the small change in solar output. However, regional cooling over Europe and North America is 5-10 times larger due to a shift in atmospheric winds."

And:

“So a reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the planet leads to a weaker equator-to-pole heating difference, and therefore slower winds. The effect on surface temperatures is particularly large in winter. Because the oceans are relatively warm during the winter due to their large heat storage, the diminished flow creates a cold-land/warm-ocean pattern (Figure 3) by reducing the transport of warm oceanic air to the continents, and vice-versa.”

6 The Moon. 

In Tom Cruise’s latest movie, Oblivion, aliens conquer the Earth by destroying the Moon and creating climatic havoc. Ian Wilson is probably entitled to a script credit. Wilson and his co-author, Nikolay Sidorenkov’s latest paper looks at how the Lunar cycles have major impacts on the Earth’s climate. This is intuitive since the Moon has such a pronounced effect on the oceans; it is reasonable to suppose it has an equal effect on the atmosphere. Jo’s analysis reduces Wilson and Sidorenkov’s complex paper to a satisfying layman’s level.

7 Aerosols. 

These minute particles can be part of volcanic eruptions and be produced by industrial processes. Their effect on climate is complex and suspected of causing both warming and cooling. Their most spectacular effect was on the Ozone layer which protects the Earth from the sun’s worst radiation. Now professor Qing-Bin Lu, former Newcastle university student has done a comprehensive analysis of the effect of aerosols on climate.

Lu’s paper analyses the relative contributions of CO2 and various other factors including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl₄ and HCFCs) and total O_3.  Lu uses comprehensive measured datasets of quantities of all the factors and concludes: “For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively.”

This is a remarkable repudiation of AGW. Equally remarkable was the response of leading AGW scientist David Karoly when interviewed on the ABC. It was plain Karoly had not even read the paper.

8 Water. 

Earth. Look at it. It’s all clouds, oceans and ice. In a neglected paper Ferguson and Veizer compared the water and CO2 cycle and found the CO2 cycle was a subordinate process. The AGW position is put by Lacis et al. who say that non-condensing gases, mainly CO2, are the Earth’s thermostat or “control knob”.  The reason for this is that CO2 stays longer in the atmosphere. This is a flawed view because CO2 is constrained by basic laws like Beer-Lambert which limit its radiative effect. In fact it is the condensation process which enables water to change its state from liquid/gas/ice which is the major contributor to atmospheric energy. A new paper by Makarieva et al finds this condensation process of water lowers atmospheric pressure. That atmospheric pressure should drop with condensation is contrary to AGW modelling. There are 2 issues flowing from this; the first is whether Makarieva is correct about condensation caused pressure drop and secondly whether that effect influences the impact of AGW. In respect of the first the issue is discussed between Makarieva and Stigter and Meesters. Useful discussions are also to be found at Jeff Condon and Jo Nova where the main protagonists, for and against, participate. Meesters main point is that is while condensation removes water from the vapor body the process of condensation heats the remaining vapor and causes a rise in pressure. This is wrong, as blogger voxUnius notes:

“Condensation heats the air parcel and hence causes faster molecular motion, expansion of the air parcel, decreased density and a decrease in pressure. That's how convective clouds work. The air inside the cloud is hotter, hence less dense, hence has less pressure than the air at the same altitude immediately outside the cloud where condensation is not taking place. This causes the simple mechanics of atmospheric convection. So-called hot air rises.”

The significance of decreased pressure profoundly contradicts AGW; with decreased pressure there can be no THS, a vital prediction of AGW. The pressure drop also confirms that even if AGW exists it is a minor player of no consequence. The Lacis paper on behalf of AGW wants us to believe the non-condensing greenhouse gases control the earth’s temperature and disaster will occur because of a 3.7 W/m2 forcing over the next 100 years or so. But this minute forcing is dwarfed by evaporating/condensing water which generates energy fluxes from Ldq and PdV [equations 1 to 3] that well exceed 1000 W/m2 each and every day. Small variations in those fluxes, such as cloud cover or levels of humidity make AGW forcing, if it is right, insignificant.

9 Carbon Dioxide (CO2). 

The basic issue of whether humans are responsible for all the increase in atmospheric CO2 has been looked at before. If CO2 increase is not due to human emissions then it is irrelevant if the claimed effect of CO2 on climate is true or not. Professor Murray Salby has given a comprehensive presentation on why the increase in CO2 is most likely due to natural emissions. CO2 follows temperature and the sun has warmed the Earth from 1850 up to the end of the 20thC thus providing the temperature cause to a natural CO2 increase. Salby addresses the mass balance argument [MB] which supposedly proves the CO2 increase is due to human emissions because the increase in CO2 is less than the human emissions. The MB cannot be right because the highest concentrations of CO2 are in non-industrialised areas such as the Amazon, key elements of the MB such as natural sinks and emissions are unknown and the correlation between temperature [and therefore natural emissions] is very high while there is little correlation between CO2 increase and human emissions.

10 Angry summer. 

Some hot temperatures and some particular site records during the summer of 2012-2013 were hailed as proof of AGW. The defects of these claims has been looked at. One point remains to be made. The Bureau of Meteorology [BOM] temperature record was the basis of these claims of a record hot or “Angry summer”. The BOM’s record is ground based. A comparison of the satellite temperature record is instructive:

These facts speak for themselves and should be front page news. They are not. That fact should also be front page news. 
----------end of re-blogged article-------------------------------------

This article has also be re-blogged at The Hockey Schtick.  There are useful comments there, as well as on the original post by Cohenite at the No Carbon Tax Climate Skeptics Party of Australia blog.

The first graphic above is shown more vividly at the C3 blog, along with more useful commentary, e.g.

"Through a combination of yet barely identified and poorly understood earthly/solar/cosmic natural forces, via the newest research it is now becoming more appreciated by a growing legion of scientists that the climate responds in a non-linear and chaotic manner that simply overwhelms any CO2 trace gas influence during the short, medium and long-terms.
The IPCC et al. alarmists religiously deny the dominance of natural climate forces yet continue to mindlessly blame CO2 despite all objective evidence that at best, it has a weak, minor role in the world of climate outcomes."

Climate Curricula in Schools: education or indoctrination with 'allowed pre-approved thoughts'?

People's Cube

If state schools really are intent on injecting 'allowed pre-approved thoughts' into children on such topics as climate change, then homeschooling will be an important option for parents who would prefer their children to be educated, optimistic, well-informed, and able to think for themselves. 

 The 'thoughts' that would be of particular concern on this blog are of course the bog-standard, off-the-shelf, anti-humanity, pro-'the environment', fear-driven to win their attention, politics-driven to win their commitment, ones in and around climate variation and the attribution of a dominating influence to carbon dioxide.  Thereby giving it a role in the climate system which it does not seem to have ever had in the past.  As for the present, the climate system continues to behave just as it might if the additional CO2 was of negligible importance - and that is a 'business as usual' hypothesis which no observations of temperatures, of sea states, of ice, of storms, of missing tropospheric hotspots, etc etc etc etc have been found to refute.

The graphic is from an unusual site in the States, called 'The People's Cube' which describes itself as portraying 'America Through the Eyes of a Former Soviet Agitprop Artist'.

Homeschooling over there seems to be growing in popularity, e.g. 'According to a research by National Home Education Research Institute (NHERI) in 2010, homeschooling is growing at a rate of 2-8% every year making it the fastest among different forms of education.'  Source.