Climate Curricula: China might yet lead the way with real science while we endure Green 'science' in our schools

Will we find that China will do a better job of manufacturing climate curricula for schools than the West does?  Will we import a decent treatment of climate for children at school from them?  I daresay that could happen if the news below is true, and if the Chinese do insist on good science in schools, and if they do make good use of materials from those Heartland Conferences, and if the scandal about Green influence in our schools breaks so suddenly into the mass media that new curricula will be imported to save time. 

Source: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/06/11/exclusive-China-rebuttal-climate-change

Mad Men of Climate-Change Alarmism: you don't want their agitation anywhere near your children

These are alarmed men, obsessed with notions of impending doom thanks to rising levels of CO2.  There is neither observational nor theoretical evidence to warrant such alarm.  It is instead only supported by some computer models all but universally agreed to be woefully inadequate* in the face of the complexity of the climate system.  The emotive excesses of these men and of those who have been unduly influenced by them are not suitable for children.  Children should be protected from scaremongering in order that they may have a more carefree childhood.  

* For a recent example, see:  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/09/more-climate-models-fail-a-chink-in-the-armor-at-science/#more-87897

CartoonsByJosh.com

The above cartoon by Josh is a response to one entitled 'Mad Men of Climate-Change Denial' where these words are in the accompanying text 'At a time when the emergency warning light is flashing on climate change, these scoundrels help to confuse the issue, making it seem as though there is scientific debate where there is no significant scientific disagreement.'(Brodner)

Mad Men of Climate Denial

My comment to that post was not published, and was, from memory, approximately as follows:

"That climate changes, always has always will, is settled science.  That the CO2 molecule absorbs and emits infra-red radiation is settled science.  What is not at all settled is the relative importance of the latter on the former.  Here there is room for considerable debate, a debate in which the men in your cartoon have all made excellent contributions." 

There is some discussion of both of these cartoons at WUWT, along with these links with further information on some of the doings of the characters in Josh's cartoon:

'References to names:
Al Carbon Billionaire Gore: Al Gore could become world’s first carbon billionaire – UK Telegraph, Nov 3, 2009
Gavin Real Climate Disappoints Schmidt: One could even ask whether the effort that we have put into RealClimate has been in vain. The legend of the Titanic – RealClimate, 3 May 2012
James Death Train Hansen: Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them “The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains.” – UK Guardian, 14 February 2009
Mikey One Tree Hockey Stick Mann: Climategate reveals ‘the most influential tree in the world’ -UK Telegraph, 05 Dec 2009
Stephan It’s a conspiracy Lewandowsky: 10 conspiracy theorists makes a moon landing paper for Stephan Lewandowsky JoNova, September 6th, 2012
Peter The Thief Gleick: Breaking, Gleick Confesses, WUWT, Feb 20, 2012
Eric The Red Antarctic Steig: O’Donnell et al 2010 Refutes Steig et al 2009, ClimateAudit, Dec 2, 2010
Scott Super Mandia: Climate Craziness of the Week: Supermandia, WUWT, October 31, 2011
Kevin It’s a travesty there’s no wamin’ Trenberth: The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. Climategate Emails, Wed, 14 Oct 2009'

Note added later on 10 June 2013 Here is another picture with more of the 'Climate Change Mad Men' in it (h/t Paul Matthews) and this is presumably what the Brodner one above was responding to:

'Facts, Not Fear': talking with children about the prospect of a warmer planet.

Amazon

The book ‘Facts, Not Fear’ covers many eco-alarms, and shows in each case how the sting may be removed from them by the simple expedient of noting contrary evidence and the informed views of subject-matter experts who are not alarmed.  

Chapter 13, entitled ‘A Hotter Planet?’ addresses the global warming scare, using the same structure deployed for the other alarms.  I will try to convey that structure here, using extracts from Chapter 13.

 

The authors lead-in with quotes illustrative of the alarm.  This sets the scene, and starts from where most readers are likely to be, given the extent to which such views have been promoted in recent decades.  Here is an example they use from the magazine Maclean’s in 1995:

“Imagine a world of relentlessly rising temperatures, where farmlands are scorched into desert and inland waters like the Great Lakes shrink in the heat.  As global warming intensifies, the polar ice caps dissolve and ocean levels rise by more than 100 feet, swamping low-lying islands and coastal areas. Vancouver, Halifax, New York City, Amsterdam, Shanghai and other port cities are inundated.  As the global floodwaters rise, more than a quarter of the world’s population is displaced.”

They take a closer look at some of the claims

‘It is true that over the past 100 years, the Earth has become slightly warmer, but only by about half a degree Celsius or 1 degree Fahrenheit. ‘

‘… most of the warming occurred before most of the greenhouse gases were put in the atmosphere’

‘As for the future, scientists do not know if the Earth will continue to get warmer.  If it does, the increase may be so slight as to be hardly noticeable.’

‘Recent studies have predicted a possible rise in sea level of six to forty inches, not feet.’

‘Temperature predictions, too, have moderated.’

‘..measurements of temperature taken by satellites (rather than measurements close to the ground) showed no warming between 1979 and mid-1996 …In fact there was a slight cooling trend..’

They take a closer look at some of the science

‘Some years ago, scientists decided to see what would happen if they assumed CO2 had doubled, as they thought it would by the end of the twenty-first century.  The result: significantly higher temperatures, higher by between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius.  The projections looked scientific. But scientists know that these computer models of the world’s climate have strengths and weaknesses … they miss entirely the effects of mountains such as the Rockies, the Sierra Nevadas and the Cascades.  According to these models, the climate of heavily forested Oregon and the climate of the Nevada desert would be about the same…Another problem is that scientists are really guessing about how different aspects of the climate affect one another.  For example:

# Water vapour is far more important than carbon dioxide in trapping heat.  Carbon dioxide will increase temperatures significantly only if water vapour increases significantly.  But will it?

# Clouds (composed of water vapour that has condensed into droplets) may increase if carbon dioxide goes up.  Some clouds increase the warming effect and others decrease it by reflecting sunlight back into space

# Oceans and vegetation absorb CO2, but how much, how fast, and for how long?  No one knows.

..Another problem is that the pattern of warming does not follow the rise in CO2 …’

They articulate a calmer perspective

‘Children’s textbooks, reflecting the popular view, discuss only the negative impacts of warming.  But some scientists note that if the world gets warmer, that would not be all bad.

# “In fact,” says Andrew Solow, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, “there is some irony in the description of global warming as problematic, since it is not unreasonable to view human history as a struggle to stay warm.”

# Thomas Gale Moore, a prominent economist at the Hoover Institution, has even concluded that warmer weather would reduce deaths from heart disease and respiratory illness.  Cold temperatures lead to death more often than hot ones.

# More carbon dioxide in the air will benefit many plants.  It causes more luxuriant plant growth, larger flowers, and great crop yield.  Some scientists think that rising levels of CO2 in the air have already contributed to the Green Revolution, that is, to the remarkable increases in food production of the past few decades.”

The chapter finishes with two headings that are used in each of the specific-topic chapters: ‘Talking to Your Children’ and ‘Activities for Parents and Children’.  Here are extracts from these:

‘Talking to Your Children’

‘It is little wonder that our children are frightened.  We would be, too, if we read the textbooks our children do.  But now you can give your children a more balanced picture.

# Is the world going to get hotter?

   No one really knows.  Carbon dioxide keeps heat from being emitted into space and, because carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere, temperatures may get warmer.  However, the warming may be so small as not be noticeable by the average person.

# Are human activities causing global warming?

  Perhaps.  By burning fossil fuel, humans add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and more carbon dioxide should keep more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere.  But the increase in warmth may be very small since many, many factors affect climate. Until recently, some scientists were more worried about a coming Ice Age than too much warming.

# Has the world been getting hotter?

  Yes, a little.  Scientists think that the Earth’s average temperatures have increased by between three- and six-tenths of a degree Celsius or between one-half and one degrees Fahrenheit over the past one hundred years.  But the increases have been irregular, not steady, and it may simply reflect natural variation in temperatures over time.

# Is carbon dioxide harmful?

  No.  In fact, it is a beneficial part of the atmosphere.  It provides food for plants.  More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should increase plant growth.  This will increase the amount of oxygen from plants through photosynthesis.’

 ‘Activities for Parents and Children’

The authors give three suggestions for helping ‘reassure your children that the world is not “out of control”’:

i) Visit a library and study books about dinosaurs, and note that in that era: ‘the Earth has an atmosphere that contained carbon dioxide levels that were five to ten times greater than now …The Earth was warmer and wetter, not burning up or drying out. (At other times, however, high carbon dioxide levels coexisted with cold temperatures).  The point is that the image of global warming that many people hold may be unnecessarily grim.’

ii) Visit a commercial greenhouse.  You can explain that the way they work is nothing like the so-called greenhouse effect. 

‘Ask the greenhouse manager to explain how conditions in the greenhouse are controlled to help plants grow.  Does this greenhouse add carbon dioxide?  Why or why not?’

iii) Another trip to the library.  ‘Doomsday predictions of climate change are nothing new.  Your children may not be aware that in the mid-1970s many people worried about the coming Ice Age’.  Suggestions are then given for articles and books to look up.

My take

That is a very appealing structure and style.  It would be easy to find even more melodramatic quotes to kick it off, and easy to find more criticisms* of the case for climate alarm.  But they could easily result in a much harsher or more strident tone, and be less suited for the intended use of helping children.   I think the gentle, but purposeful and highly-focused approach taken by the authors of this book has much to commend it.  It would be counter-productive to try to be too comprehensive or too hard-hitting.  Any such book will not be the last word on any of these issues, but a book such as this one could well be the inspiration for some children at least to do a lot more reading of other sources.  And it may just be sufficient for most of them to take the sting out of the alarming materials that are so readily encountered about human influence on the climate system.

* Note added 05 June 2013  A recent listing of failings of this case is presented here: http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/agw_theory_has_failed_all_tests_so_alarmists_return_to_the_consensus_hoax/

'Facts, Not Fear': helping parents drive out fears of global catastrophe from children misled by their schools.

Amazon

Facts, Not Fear is inevitably out of date, so why promote it here? 

Since it was published in 1996 and 1999, the harm caused by environmental alarmism has arguably increased.  For example, in the UK we have seen a Labour government actively engage in promoting climate alarmism in schools, and the impact of diverting farmland to produce bio-fuels has been tragic on a large scale for the world's poorest people.  At the same time, the case for alarm over carbon dioxide has gone from weak to even weaker.  For example, global mean temperature has doggedly refuse to rise along with the continued rise in carbon dioxide levels, and the computer modellers have had to revise their talk, and their projections, to admit a lower ‘climate sensitivity’.

Even though the case for alarm may soon become widely recognised as inadequate as a basis for policy-making, or indeed most anything else, there will remain the task of cleaning up school curricula tainted by it, and doing something to help children disturbed by it.  This book provides an excellent starting point for both.  I hope the book will be updated and re-published, and it seems all but inevitable that it would be even more effective, relevant, and convincing if it were to be.

I shall do some more posts based on the book, and encourage readers to buy it pending that hoped-for new edition.

The book covers a lot of ground.  Here are the titles of the chapters and the appendices:

1.      A letter to parents. 

2.      Trendy schools.

3.      Last chance to save the planet.

4.      At odds with science.

5.      What are the costs?

6.      World population – will billions starve?

7.      Natural resources – on the way out?

8.      Canadian forests – a wasteland?

9.      The rain forest – one hundred acres a minute?

10.  North American wildlife – on the edge?

11.  Where have all the species gone?

12.  The air we breathe?

13.  A hotter planet?

14.  Sorting out ozone. 

15.  Acid rain. 

16.  Not a drop to drink? 

17.  Don’t eat that apple?

18.  A garbage crisis? 

19.  The recycling myth. 

20.  What we can do. 

A. Textbooks reviewed.

B. Environmental books for children

C. Books for a well-stocked environmental library

D. Academic and Scientific Advisory Panel

The primary authors are Michael Sanera, qualified in political science, and Jane S. Shaw, qualified in economics.  Two researchers at the Fraser Institute provided the customisation for the Canadian edition: Liv Fredricksen and Laura Jones.  Appendix D lists dozens of subject-matter experts who reviewed issue-specific chapters 6 to 19.

To give you an idea of the intentions and style of the authors, here are the last few paragraphs of Chapter 1, A Letter to Parents:  

'How can you give your children a more balanced view of environmental problems?  One way is gently to supply the information that is missing in their classrooms.  This book will give you the facts and insight into scientific controversies that are not covered in the textbooks.

Simply learning that reputable scientists often disagree with the claims of imminent catastrophe will keep your children from blindly fearing the future.  Such information will also help your children see that environmental science is a discipline that reflects scientific uncertainty and is open to continual discovery.  Your children can learn about environmental issues and develop their critical thinking skills at the same time.  As scientists do, they can collect the facts and see whether the theories that have been advanced actually fit the facts.

With this greater objectivity, students can also begin to think critically about the causes of environmental problems, and develop their understanding of human nature.  They won’t be so quick to accept the simplistic claims of catastrophic global destruction.  Your children will probably stop pestering you to take up the cause of the day, or at least they will be willing to consider that their crusade may not be for everyone.

Each chapter concludes with a few questions and answers that will help you summarise the information for your children.  Each also has activities that you and your children might like to read and perhaps try out.  The activities offer concrete evidence that supports the information in the chapter.  However, the activities are merely suggestions that make a richer experience out of a trip to the lumberyard, say, or the supermarket.  We recognise that you are a busy parent, with many goals other than teaching your children environmental science.

Unlike the authors of some environmental books for kids, we don’t expect you or your children to picket a fast-food restaurant or write a protest letter to your local politician.  We think your children should have a chance to learn about the environment rather than be mobilised into trendy campaigns.  This book will help them.’

I think it could.

'Facts, Not Fear': an excellent book for helping you to help your children deal with climate-scaremongering and other eco-propaganda.

Aimed at parents and teachers, this excellent book shows the way to take the sting out of the facile alarmism pushed at the young on climate and other fashionable eco-topics.  First published in 1996 in the States, 'Facts, Not Fear' is bristling not only with counter-arguments to defuse alarm, but also with a structure which could be readily adapted and built-upon for use elsewhere. 

Dozens of copies are available on Abebooks.

 

In 1999, an edition customised for use in Canada was published with lots of local examples to help readers engage with young people and encourage them to take a wider view than those typically presented by zealots promoting alarm for their cause of the day.  This edition is shown on the left and can be obtained via Amazon from various dealers.










I intend to share extracts from this book in further posts.

Note added 03/10/14:   The first three chapters are reproduced on line here:
 http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/books/facts_not_fear/