The book
‘Facts, Not Fear’ covers many eco-alarms, and shows in each case how the sting
may be removed from them by the simple expedient of noting contrary evidence
and the informed views of subject-matter experts who are not alarmed.
Chapter 13, entitled ‘A Hotter Planet?’
addresses the global warming scare, using the same structure deployed for the
other alarms. I will try to convey that
structure here, using extracts from Chapter 13.
The authors lead-in with quotes illustrative of the alarm.
This sets the scene, and starts from where most readers are likely to
be, given the extent to which such views have been promoted in recent
decades. Here is an example they use
from the magazine Maclean’s in 1995:
“Imagine a world of relentlessly rising
temperatures, where farmlands are scorched into desert and inland waters like
the Great Lakes shrink in the heat. As global warming intensifies, the polar ice
caps dissolve and ocean levels rise by more than 100 feet, swamping low-lying
islands and coastal areas. Vancouver, Halifax, New York City, Amsterdam, Shanghai and other port
cities are inundated. As the global
floodwaters rise, more than a quarter of the world’s population is displaced.”
They take a closer look at some of the claims
‘It is true
that over the past 100 years, the Earth has become slightly warmer, but only by
about half a degree Celsius or 1 degree Fahrenheit. ‘
‘… most of
the warming occurred before most of the greenhouse gases were put in the
atmosphere’
‘As for the
future, scientists do not know if the Earth will continue to get warmer. If it does, the increase may be so slight as
to be hardly noticeable.’
‘Recent
studies have predicted a possible rise in sea level of six to forty inches, not
feet.’
‘Temperature
predictions, too, have moderated.’
‘..measurements
of temperature taken by satellites (rather than measurements close to the
ground) showed no warming between 1979 and mid-1996 …In fact there was a slight
cooling trend..’
They take a closer look at some of the science
‘Some years
ago, scientists decided to see what would happen if they assumed CO2 had
doubled, as they thought it would by the end of the twenty-first century. The result: significantly higher
temperatures, higher by between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius. The projections looked scientific. But
scientists know that these computer models of the world’s climate have
strengths and weaknesses … they miss entirely the effects of mountains such as
the Rockies, the Sierra Nevadas and the
Cascades. According to these models, the
climate of heavily forested Oregon and the
climate of the Nevada
desert would be about the same…Another problem is that scientists are really
guessing about how different aspects of the climate affect one another. For example:
# Water
vapour is far more important than carbon dioxide in trapping heat. Carbon dioxide will increase temperatures
significantly only if water vapour increases significantly. But will it?
# Clouds
(composed of water vapour that has condensed into droplets) may increase if
carbon dioxide goes up. Some clouds
increase the warming effect and others decrease it by reflecting sunlight back
into space
# Oceans
and vegetation absorb CO2, but how much, how fast, and for how long? No one knows.
..Another
problem is that the pattern of warming does not follow the rise in CO2 …’
They articulate a calmer perspective
‘Children’s
textbooks, reflecting the popular view, discuss only the negative impacts of
warming. But some scientists note that
if the world gets warmer, that would not be all bad.
# “In
fact,” says Andrew Solow, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute,
“there is some irony in the description of global warming as problematic, since
it is not unreasonable to view human history as a struggle to stay warm.”
# Thomas
Gale Moore, a prominent economist at the Hoover Institution, has even concluded
that warmer weather would reduce deaths from heart disease and respiratory
illness. Cold temperatures lead to death
more often than hot ones.
# More
carbon dioxide in the air will benefit many plants. It causes more luxuriant plant growth, larger
flowers, and great crop yield. Some
scientists think that rising levels of CO2 in the air have already contributed
to the Green Revolution, that is, to the remarkable increases in food
production of the past few decades.”
The chapter
finishes with two headings that are used in each of the specific-topic chapters: ‘Talking to Your Children’ and ‘Activities for Parents and Children’. Here are extracts from these:
‘Talking to Your Children’
‘It is
little wonder that our children are frightened.
We would be, too, if we read the textbooks our children do. But now you can give your children a more
balanced picture.
# Is the
world going to get hotter?
No one really knows. Carbon dioxide keeps heat from being emitted
into space and, because carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere,
temperatures may get warmer. However,
the warming may be so small as not be noticeable by the average person.
# Are human
activities causing global warming?
Perhaps.
By burning fossil fuel, humans add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and
more carbon dioxide should keep more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. But the increase in warmth may be very small
since many, many factors affect climate. Until recently, some scientists were
more worried about a coming Ice Age than too much warming.
# Has the
world been getting hotter?
Yes, a little. Scientists think that the Earth’s average
temperatures have increased by between three- and six-tenths of a degree
Celsius or between one-half and one degrees Fahrenheit over the past one
hundred years. But the increases have
been irregular, not steady, and it may simply reflect natural variation in
temperatures over time.
# Is carbon
dioxide harmful?
No. In
fact, it is a beneficial part of the atmosphere. It provides food for plants. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should
increase plant growth. This will
increase the amount of oxygen from plants through photosynthesis.’
‘Activities for Parents and Children’
The authors
give three suggestions for helping ‘reassure your children that the world is
not “out of control”’:
i) Visit a
library and study books about dinosaurs, and note that in that era: ‘the Earth
has an atmosphere that contained carbon dioxide levels that were five to ten
times greater than now …The Earth was warmer and wetter, not burning up or
drying out. (At other times, however, high carbon dioxide levels coexisted with
cold temperatures). The point is that
the image of global warming that many people hold may be unnecessarily grim.’
ii) Visit a
commercial greenhouse. You can explain
that the way they work is nothing like the so-called greenhouse effect.
‘Ask the
greenhouse manager to explain how conditions in the greenhouse are controlled
to help plants grow. Does this
greenhouse add carbon dioxide? Why or
why not?’
iii)
Another trip to the library. ‘Doomsday
predictions of climate change are nothing new.
Your children may not be aware that in the mid-1970s many people worried
about the coming Ice Age’. Suggestions
are then given for articles and books to look up.
My take
That is a
very appealing structure and style. It
would be easy to find even more melodramatic quotes to kick it off, and easy to
find more criticisms* of the case for climate alarm. But they could easily result in a much
harsher or more strident tone, and be less suited for the intended use of
helping children. I think the gentle, but purposeful and highly-focused approach taken by the authors of this book has much to commend it. It would be counter-productive to try to be too comprehensive or too hard-hitting. Any such book will not be the last word on any of these issues, but a book such as this one could well be the inspiration for some children at least to do a lot more reading of other sources. And it may just be sufficient for most of them to take the sting out of the alarming materials that are so readily encountered about human influence on the climate system.
* Note added 05 June 2013 A recent listing of failings of this case is presented here: http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/agw_theory_has_failed_all_tests_so_alarmists_return_to_the_consensus_hoax/
