Candid Calor's Climatological Confessions

An insightful interview of a Dr Calor reported by Dr Briggs (Hat tip: http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/)  Hot stuff.  This could be a breakthrough for providing insight into the previously more mysterious thought processes of climatologists.  Perhaps the less virtual of them might see something of their own 'reality' here?  The words of Burns spring to mind:

 O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us
To see oursels as others see us
It wad frae monie a blunder free us
An' foolish notion
What airs in dress an' gait wad lea'e us
An' ev'n Devotion

  Here is an extract from the interview:

'But satellites don’t directly measure temperature. Isn’t it so that they measure radiation and through a physical-statistical algorithm estimate temperature?
This is natural, yes.
This implies that there is uncertainty in that estimate: another plus and minus. Do you account for that in your estimates?
These satellites are calibrated by very complicated computers, a very expensive process. We are confident in the data they produce.
Taken in all, we are as sure as we are about anything that the temperature has increased a few tenths of a degree and that most of this increase is due to the activity of mankind.
How do we know that?
We build very beautiful, extraordinarily complex computer models which prove this. Although they are difficult to fully comprehend, at base they are very simple.
We know that carbon dioxide captures heat in the lower reaches of the atmosphere. The more CO₂ there is, the more heat captured. We also know that a doubling of pre-industrial levels of CO₂ will only raise the temperature an insignificant amount. Yes?
So we build into these models a feedback mechanism that says as more CO₂ is added, the temperature increases non-linearly. We then run these models and we find exactly what we expected to see: increasing CO₂ leads to a positive feedback in temperature!
But aren’t you just seeing what you put into the model? It’s not quite an independent verification of the theory.
You forget that we also have evidence that these models have produced simulations that look, after some processing, like actual observations. That should be enough proof that our theory is correct.
Perhaps. But aren’t there literally hundreds of knobs and dials that you need to tweak to “tune” the models so that they first produce those simulations? Do you have independent evidence that these models predicted new data better than predictions based on the assumption that your theory is wrong?
Look here, young man. I hope you are not going to take the denialist position. If we don’t do something now, by the time we confirm everything, it may be too late.
You can’t argue with that. Thank you for talking to us, Dr Calor.'

Albert Gore: how much harm can one man do?

Today sees some kind of last-ditch fundraising effort by Al Gore, a profoundly unpleasant man whose movie, 'An Inconvenient Truth' is full of untruths and should never in a month of Sundays have been issued to schools in the UK.  The harm from it must include the needless and shameless frightening of children, and probably a great many teachers as well.  Further harm will arise from the misleading information presented.  Further harm will come from the cynicism about science and politics and teachers that must follow as the nonsense about climate is, as is happening almost daily, more widely exposed for what it is: non-sense.  Harmful nonsense that has helped bring about increased famine through bio-fuels, increased energy prices through windfarms and the like, increased pollution through relocation of industries, and general distortion of the commerical and political 'marketplace' through excessive and sometime corrupting obsessions with 'carbon'.

But amidst all this gloom and the ongoing tawdry schemings of 'environmentalists' such as Gore, we have some sparks of humour to help cheer us up.  Please visit Bishop Hill's site to see more of Josh's cartoon series to mark this day:

Talking Points for Discerning Pupils Faced with CO2 Alarmism in the Classroom

One of the ways in which the facile alarmism about CO2 being pushed at and within schools can be undermined is for the more able pupils to raise discussion points during classes.  A recent article in the Canada Free Press site gives a few good questions which look well worth trying.  See the original article here to get background and backup on each of the questions. (hat tip: http://antigreen.blogspot.com/)

How do you explain that global temperatures according to UN data have not increased since 1998 and there has been no significant warming since 1995?

 

Are you aware that even the UN IPCC does not consider climate models to be “predictions” or “forecasts” but merely emission scenarios?

Are you aware of multiple scientific studies showing the medieval warm period (before SUV’s and human emissions) to be warmer than current temps?

How do you explain that CO2 levels have been much higher in the Earth’s history, but have not coincided with human or animal extinction?

Can you explain why Greenland has cooled since the late 1930’s and 1940’s?

Can you explain why Antarctic sea ice has expanded to record levels in recent years?

Are you aware that Arctic Sea ice has EXPANDED in 2008?

Are you aware of the multiple peer-reviewed studies blaming Arctic sea ice reductions on many factors not related to man-made carbon emissions?

Are you aware that the Earth is currently in one of the coolest periods in its geologic history?

Are you aware that a recent U.S. Senate report features more than 500 scientists dissenting from man-made climate fears—more than 10 times the number (52) of UN IPCC scientists who signed off on alarmist (and media hyped) Summary for PolicyMakers in 2007.

Are you aware that many solar scientists and geologists are now warning of a possible coming global cooling? 

 

How do you explain that an analysis in peer-reviewed journal found COLD PERIODS – not warm periods [..were associated with the greatest climate-related disasters such as major floods, and droughts] ?

How do you explain the recent U.S. government report which found Hurricanes declining, NO increases in drought, tornados, thunderstorms, heat-waves? 

 

Memorable lyric: 'people whom we should be ruling must fear global warming. '

I must apologise to any remaining readers for the dearth of posts.  I have been a bit unwell for many weeks, but I seem to be back on the mend now and hope to be able to do more soon.  In the meantime, here is a song well-worth listening to:

 

What Shall We Do with the Missing Data?

Credits

Words by Deadman Turner.

Lyrics

How shall we deal with egregious errors?
How can we spread more alarmist terrors?
What could we fake to create a scare as
good as global warming?
man-made global warming
faking man-made global warming.

Soon your power must be dearer;
Armageddon is much nearer;
evidence, we say, is clearer
for that global warming.

Now it seems the weather’s cooling;
numbers drop of those we’re fooling;
people whom we should be ruling
must fear global warming.

Dr. Jones is now quite shaken,
feeling that he’s cooked his bacon;
maybe he was just mistaken
over global warming.

What shall we do with the missing data?
How shall we hide all the graphs’ stigmata?
How shall we keep all our fees pro rata
while we fake world warming?
man-made global warming
faking man-made global warming.

Oh, dear, no, the seas aren’t rising;
powercos though are downsizing;
stop those sceptics analysing
man-made global warming!

We must keep the mob from waking;
hide how much that we were taking;
Mann and Jones et Al. were faking
man-made global warming.

Quench the opposition fires;
all who disagree are liars;
we’ll defame those bad deniers
of our global warming.

What shall we do with the evil-doers?
What shall we do with the peer-reviewers?
What shall we do with corrupting CRUers
faking global warming?
man-made global warming
faking man-made global warming.

Looks and sounds like it is from Australia, a land where the tide may well be turning against climate hysteria thanks to some foolish legislation in the offing to impose a 'carbon tax'.

Source, and link play the song aloud: http://www.mp3.com.au/Forms/MediaView.aspx?MediaId=146975 

Hat-tip: 'Deadman' posting on 'Unthreaded' at Bishop Hill on 27 August, 4:12PM.

A sensible perspective on climate just published: an essay accessible to teachers of all subjects

The torrent of alarmism about CO2 and climate variation has swept teachers, as well as politicians and many of the general public, into positions of de facto compliance and collaboration with a new dogma.  Some (and may their numbers increase faster than the upturned blade of an ice-hockey stick) are of course questioning this force-fed diet and associated actions which they have been assured are urgent and essential to 'save the planet'.

Where might such a teacher go to formulate or deepen their own perspective on climate?  Few would care to dive into the world of the complex computer programs at the heart of the alarmism.  Few are in a position to dispute with those who assert a scientific consensus, or more specific appeals to authority.  Yet they can all study expository, tutorial, and explanatory materials written by experts in relevant fields, and reflect on the credibility, consistency, coherence, verifiability and tone of them.

One such piece has been published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation:

'The Truth About Greenhouse Gases'

by William Happer, the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics at Princeton University.


The essay begins with a quote from the Madness of Crowds:


“The object of the Author in the following pages has been to collect the most remarkable instances of those moral epidemics which have been excited, sometimes by one cause and sometimes by another, and to show how easily the masses have been led astray, and how imitative and gregarious men are, even in their infatuations and crimes,” wrote Charles Mackay in the preface to the first edition of his Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. I want to discuss a contemporary moral epidemic: the notion that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, will have disastrous consequences for mankind and for the planet. This contemporary “climate crusade” has much in common with the medieval crusades Mackay describes, with true believers, opportunists, cynics, money-hungry governments, manipulators of various types, and even children’s crusades.'

  The whole essay can be downloaded as a pdf here: http://www.thegwpf.org/images/stories/gwpf-reports/happer-the_truth_about_greenhouse_gases.pdf


Note added 21 Sep 2011: Lubus Motl has fisked, and exposed as unimpressive, an attempt to discredit Happer's essay.  Poor MacCracken - he may be a  'fat cat alarmist', but he is pretty thin when it comes to intellect and integrity.