Re-blogged from http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/man-made-global-warming-wrong-ten.html
Man-Made Global Warming WRONG - The Ten Reasons.
10 Reasons why Man-Made Global Warming is
Wrong.
by COHENITE
1 Temperature
CO2 emissions by humans are supposed to
increase the temperature; that is the basic point of man-made global warming
[AGW]. The more CO2 in the atmosphere the hotter it should get. That is a basic
AGW prediction. It is isn’t happening. Walter Brozek analyses the official temperature data from all the main sources
including the satellites. Brozek uses 2 criteria; the first from NOAA to test
for flatness or zero warming; the second from Dr Phil Jones to test for no
statistical warming; the 2 criteria overlap with the second allowing for some
slight warming and the first for even cooling. The first shows zero temperature
for 15 years; the second for up to 23 years. The first is climatically
significant by NOAA standards, the second by Dr Santer’s standards. This means the temperature is not being caused by AGW. The only
line going up is CO2:
 |
| Link available HERE, |
2 Models.
AGW science is based on modelling
which in turn is based on certain assumptions about the effect on climate of
various factors such as CO2. This effect is expressed as a forcing and can be
seen at the IPCC website. Note how the forcing expected from CO2 is nearly 20 times greater
than from the sun. Predictions about how these forcings will determine
temperature have been around for a long time and can therefore be checked. Roy
Spencer has checked the model predictions against the temperature in the
Troposphere:
 |
| Roy Spencer Graph. |
Some will say Roy’s comparison only shows
the models can’t predict the Troposphere. But as Bob Tisdale shows the models also
can’t predict sea
surface temperatures, land
and sea surface temperatures, or precipitation.
Nor can they, as Koutsoyiannis
showed, predict the past.
3 The sun (1).
AGW science says the sun has
little effect on temperature compared with CO2 forcing. Dr Ka-Kit Tung
disagrees and has compared the long-term solar record with the longest
temperature record on the planet, the Central England Temperature [CET]. The
final image in Tung’s slide
presentation is revealing and shows a remarkable correlation between the
CET record and Total Solar Irradiation [TSI]. This correlation between
temperature and TSI has also been derived in 2 other studies. The first is by Glassman at
Figure 1 where he uses global HADCRUT3 data. The second is by Stockwell at Figures 4-7 where
all the major land-based temperature indices are shown to correlate with TSI
using his model. Stockwell’s model is simply that temperature responds to TSI
mean with the rate of temperature increase/decline determined by the movement
away from the mean.
4 The
sun (2).
A new
study from Spain, the home of solar power and national bankruptcy, shows
how variations in solar radiation correlate well with temperature without any
need for AGW. The increase is due to cloud variation. Of course Monckton was on
top of the role of clouds and temperature when he debated Tim Lambert - and
Lambert sprung that infamous
ambush about Pinker being a woman not a man. What was overlooked was the fact
that Monckton was correct. Pinker et al
had found that solar forcing through cloud variation was sufficient to explain
all the temperature increase from the 1980’s onwards. This should come as no
surprise really because it is exactly what the IPCC
in TAR had found too.
5 The sun (3).
Hood
et al’s 2013 paper shows
how slight variations in TSI have an amplified effect on the ocean, land and
stratosphere. This amplification occurs or begins regionally and can produce
seemingly contradictory results such as the ‘warming’ Arctic and a freezing
Europe which the AGW supporters are saying is merely how AGW works. Of course
this is the complete opposite of what the AGW supporters used to say. Who can forget Dr
Viner predicting an end to winter snow in the Northern Hemisphere generally
and particularly in England? NASA’s Drew Shindell
noticed this solar amplification back in 2002; Shindell said:
“In our
simulations, we find that the reduced brightness of the Sun during the Maunder
Minimum causes global average surface temperature changes of only a few tenths
of a degree, in line with the small change in solar output. However, regional
cooling over Europe and North America is 5-10 times larger due to a shift in
atmospheric winds."
And:
“So a reduction
in the amount of sunlight reaching the planet leads to a weaker equator-to-pole
heating difference, and therefore slower winds. The effect on surface
temperatures is particularly large in winter. Because the oceans are relatively
warm during the winter due to their large heat storage, the diminished flow
creates a cold-land/warm-ocean pattern (Figure 3) by reducing the transport of
warm oceanic air to the continents, and vice-versa.”
6 The Moon.
In Tom Cruise’s latest movie, Oblivion, aliens conquer the
Earth by destroying the Moon and creating climatic havoc. Ian Wilson is
probably entitled to a script credit. Wilson
and his co-author, Nikolay Sidorenkov’s latest paper looks at how the Lunar
cycles have major impacts on the Earth’s climate. This is intuitive since the
Moon has such a pronounced effect on the oceans; it is reasonable to suppose it
has an equal effect on the atmosphere. Jo’s
analysis reduces Wilson and Sidorenkov’s complex paper to a satisfying
layman’s level.
7 Aerosols.
These minute particles can be
part of volcanic eruptions and be produced by industrial processes. Their
effect on climate is complex and suspected of causing both warming and cooling.
Their most spectacular effect was on the Ozone layer which protects the Earth
from the sun’s worst radiation. Now professor Qing-Bin Lu, former Newcastle
university student has done a comprehensive
analysis of the effect of aerosols on climate.
Lu’s
paper analyses the relative contributions of CO2 and various other factors including
cosmic rays (CRs), total solar
irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4
and HCFCs) and total O3. Lu uses comprehensive measured datasets of quantities of all the factors and
concludes: “For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data
clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the
dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively.”
This is a remarkable
repudiation of AGW. Equally remarkable was the response of leading AGW
scientist David Karoly when interviewed on the ABC. It was plain Karoly had not even read the paper.
8 Water.
Earth. Look at it. It’s all clouds, oceans and ice. In a neglected paper Ferguson and Veizer compared the water and CO2 cycle and found the
CO2 cycle was a subordinate process. The AGW position is put by Lacis et al. who say that non-condensing gases, mainly
CO2, are the Earth’s thermostat or “control knob”. The
reason for this is that CO2 stays longer in the atmosphere. This is a flawed
view because CO2 is constrained by basic laws like Beer-Lambert which limit its
radiative effect. In fact it is the condensation process which enables water to
change its state from liquid/gas/ice which is the major contributor to
atmospheric energy. A new paper by Makarieva et al finds this condensation process of water
lowers atmospheric pressure. That atmospheric pressure should drop with condensation is contrary to AGW modelling. There are 2 issues flowing from this;
the first is whether Makarieva is correct about condensation caused pressure
drop and secondly whether that effect influences the impact of AGW. In respect
of the first the issue is discussed between Makarieva and Stigter and Meesters. Useful discussions are also to be found
at Jeff Condon and Jo Nova where the main protagonists, for and against,
participate. Meesters main point is that is while condensation removes water
from the vapor body the process of condensation heats the remaining vapor and
causes a rise in pressure. This is wrong, as blogger voxUnius notes:
“Condensation heats the air parcel
and hence causes faster molecular motion, expansion of the air parcel,
decreased density and a decrease in pressure. That's how convective clouds
work. The air inside the cloud is hotter, hence less dense, hence has less
pressure than the air at the same altitude immediately outside the cloud where
condensation is not taking place. This causes the simple mechanics of
atmospheric convection. So-called hot air rises.”
The
significance of decreased pressure profoundly contradicts AGW; with decreased
pressure there can be no THS, a vital prediction of AGW. The pressure
drop also confirms that even if AGW exists it is a minor player of no
consequence. The Lacis paper on behalf of AGW wants us to believe the
non-condensing greenhouse gases control the earth’s temperature and disaster
will occur because of a 3.7 W/m2 forcing over the next 100 years or so. But
this minute forcing is dwarfed by evaporating/condensing water which generates
energy fluxes from Ldq and PdV [equations 1 to 3] that well exceed 1000 W/m2 each
and every day. Small variations in those fluxes, such as cloud cover or levels
of humidity make AGW forcing, if it is right, insignificant.
9 Carbon Dioxide (CO2).
The basic issue of whether humans are responsible for all the increase in
atmospheric CO2 has been looked at before. If CO2 increase is not due to
human emissions then it is irrelevant if the claimed effect of CO2 on climate
is true or not. Professor Murray Salby has given a comprehensive
presentation on why the increase in CO2 is most likely due to natural
emissions. CO2 follows temperature and the sun has warmed the Earth from 1850
up to the end of the 20thC thus providing the temperature cause to a natural
CO2 increase. Salby addresses the mass balance argument [MB] which supposedly
proves the CO2 increase is due to human emissions because the increase in CO2
is less than the human emissions. The MB cannot be right because the highest
concentrations of CO2 are in non-industrialised areas such as the Amazon, key
elements of the MB such as natural sinks and emissions are unknown and the
correlation between temperature [and therefore natural emissions] is very high
while there is little correlation between CO2 increase and human emissions.
10 Angry
summer.
Some hot temperatures and some particular site records during the
summer of 2012-2013 were hailed as proof of AGW. The defects of these claims has been looked at. One point
remains to be made. The Bureau of Meteorology [BOM] temperature record was the
basis of these claims of a record hot or “Angry summer”. The BOM’s record is
ground based. A comparison of the satellite temperature record is instructive:
These facts speak for themselves and should
be front page news. They are not. That fact should also be front page news.
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This article has also be re-blogged at The Hockey Schtick. There are useful comments there, as well as on the original post by Cohenite at the No Carbon Tax Climate Skeptics Party of Australia blog.
The first graphic above is shown more vividly at the C3 blog, along with more useful commentary, e.g.
"Through a combination of yet barely identified and poorly understood earthly/solar/cosmic natural forces, via the newest research it is now becoming more appreciated by a growing legion of scientists that the climate responds in a non-linear and chaotic manner that simply overwhelms any CO2 trace gas influence during the short, medium and long-terms.
The IPCC et al. alarmists religiously deny the dominance of natural climate forces yet continue to mindlessly blame CO2 despite all objective evidence that at best, it has a weak, minor role in the world of climate outcomes."
The first graphic above is shown more vividly at the C3 blog, along with more useful commentary, e.g.
"Through a combination of yet barely identified and poorly understood earthly/solar/cosmic natural forces, via the newest research it is now becoming more appreciated by a growing legion of scientists that the climate responds in a non-linear and chaotic manner that simply overwhelms any CO2 trace gas influence during the short, medium and long-terms.
The IPCC et al. alarmists religiously deny the dominance of natural climate forces yet continue to mindlessly blame CO2 despite all objective evidence that at best, it has a weak, minor role in the world of climate outcomes."
