So if the models are so hopelessly riddled with errors and uncertainty that an anthropogenic radiative forcing signal cannot be distinguished from noise, or if the total magnitude of the warming attributed to humans is one-tenth to one-hundredth of the error or uncertainty ranges, why are those who dare question the degree to which humans affect the Earth’s climate branded as “deniers” of science?

Kenneth Richard,

Wednesday, 13 August 2014

10-minute trainer: Hansen's faulty faith at Wirth's Sauna Session in 1988

ScreenHunter_1907 Aug. 13 09.41
On a hot day in 1988, Hansen told this to the US Congress
His Bold Statement Transforms the Debate On Greenhouse Effect
He held up one die representing the climate for the period 1950-1980. Two sides were white for an average summer, and two other sides were blue for colder-than-average summers. The other two sides were red for hotter-than-average summers. Thus, on a roll of the die for that period, there were two chances in six of having a hot summer at any given location in the country.
Then Dr. Hansen picked up the die for the 1990’s and explained:
If our climate model calculations are approximately correct, the greenhouse warming in the 1990’s will be sufficient to shift the probabilities such that the chance of a hot summer in most of the country will be in the range of 55 to 80 percent. Four sides of the die are red. I believe it is obvious that the man in the street will notice that by then the dice are loaded. There will be more hot summers than normal, and the hottest ones will be hotter than they used to be.” 
His forecast couldn’t possibly have done any worse. He gave it during the hottest summer on record in DC, and this year has been second coolest
So far this year, less than 2.5% of days in Maryland have been over 90 degrees, which is the second lowest on record. Compare to the peak year of 1988, when over 19% of days through August 11 were over 90 degrees.
ScreenHunter_1906 Aug. 13 09.26
For the entire US, the frequency of 90 degree days has plummeted, and is near record lows
ScreenHunter_1910 Aug. 13 09.51

No comments:

Post a Comment