Part of a Cure for Climate Change Alarmism? - a simple chart for the classroom wall

Source

The UK Met Office, much to its discredit, played and continues to play a leading role in the promotion of an irrational level of alarm over human impact on climate.  An alarm out of all proportion to what we have observed so far.  Instead of temperatures rising as if CO2 was a control knob for them, we have had a clear flattening out.  For those teachers who know of children disturbed or still frightened by this alarmism, the above chart may help calm them down.  It is constructed using results just released by the UK Met Office and its partner in climatism, The Hadley Centre.  The temperatures may still rise again, of course - we are looking at modest variations here and they can readily go either way for any number of reasons - but they have not followed the prescriptions of those utterly irresponsible alarmists.  Any hint that those people do not possess anything like the competence (omniscience?) they claimed or implied for themselves, might do wonders for any frightened child.  The repair of the mental damage done by alarmism aimed at the young will no doubt be a long and tricky task, but simple, informative graphics such as the above may well have a role to play.  Notice how the Met Office displays the full set of results (none of this is raw data) at their site:

First of all note the emotive use of colour.  Secondly, note that the two periods with an overall rising trend in the 20th century are of similar size and slope - yet CO2 levels are widely agreed to have been very different between these two periods.  Thirdly, note that despite record levels of CO2 emissions being reported in recent years, the rising trend has clearly faltered - as shown more clearly in the first plot in this post. Fourthly, note the fall in 2011 is hard to see (in fact on my browser the plot is cut off at the year 2000 on the Met Office site).

The Daily Mail article which published the first plot raises the possibility of a pronounced cooling being underway.  The PR folks of the green movement will be assessing this for possible use.  Those who profit from spreading fear may well choose to switch to, or merely just include,  threats of ice instead of fire, and our defence against them will be the same.  So, while it might be that sidelining 'climate change' in favour of 'sustainability' is the new wheeze of choice,  let us watch for such as the WWF and Greenpeace including nightmares about ice ages in their PR materials.  For them the 'issue is not the issue', the 'issue' in the PR is whatever they spot as a good opportunity for their aggrandisement, the real 'issue' for them is winning power.  But their point of contact with the young, and indeed with their teachers and parents, is with the issue in the PR.  The task of more responsible adults is to first of all to shield the young from such alarmism, and, failing that, help them see it for what it is and get a calmer, more balanced picture - including the fact that our great energy resources will allow us to deal well with a wide range of climatic conditions.  We can generate confidence, not fear.  We can trust in data, not speculations.  We can be free humans, not lackeys of fund-raising zealots who have a low opinion of humanity.

For the Climate Classroom Wall: ocean heat content observed and predicted

Note the predicted trend (straight red line) compared with some actual observations. 

Quote 'If the model mean continues to diverge from the observations, how many years are required until the models can be said to have failed?'

This is a good statistical question, but it also serves an honest rhetorical purpose as a comment on this chart.

 (Source: Bob Tisdale              Hat-tip: C3)

Compare it with this material aimed at 'kids' on the NASA site:

'The ocean does an excellent job of absorbing excess heat from the atmosphere. The top few meters of the ocean stores as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere. So, as the planet warms, it's the ocean that gets most of the extra energy.

But if the ocean gets too warm, then the plants and animals that live in it must adapt--or die.
Algae and plankton are at the bottom of the food chain. Plankton includes many different kinds of tiny animals, plants, or bacteria that just float and drift in the ocean. Other tiny animals such as krill (sort of like little shrimp) eat the plankton. Fish and even whales and seals feed on the krill. In some parts of the ocean, krill populations have dropped by over 80 percent. Why? Krill like to breed in really cold water near sea ice. What would happen if there were no sea ice? What would happen if there were very little plankton or krill? The whole food web could come unraveled.'

Quote 'The whole food web could come unraveled.' 

Do you think by any chance they want to scare the 'kids'?
Q. How can they justify this?
A. Because the model projections look alarming

Might be enough to persuade you to read Bob Tisdale's article linked to above.
Or research into what kind of of temperature rise would mean 'the ocean gets too warm'.

The Devil waits for his own: what Burns might have penned for the Green Lords of today

This being Burns Day, I will mark it with an extract from one of his poems in which he imagines the devil (Beelzebub) looking forward to an aristocrat coming to join him in due course after a long and healthy life.  Burns was addressing some Lords, and one in particular, who objected to some poor highlanders trying to escape their poverty by emigrating to North America in 1786.  He hoped that these folks would find someone like George Washington to help them achieve their aims and escape from those Lords who would prefer to keep them under their control.  He hopes there will be no equivalents of the prominent Lords  (North, Sackville, Howe, Clinton) who fought against Washington’s cause - American independence.

Address Of Beelzebub

Long life, my Lord, an' health be yours, 

Unskaithed by hunger'd Highland boors; 

Lord grant me nae duddie, desperate beggar, 

Wi' dirk, claymore, and rusty trigger, 

May twin auld Scotland o' a life 

She likes - as lambkins like a knife. 

Faith you and Applecross were right 

To keep the Highland hounds in sight: 

I doubt na! they wad bid nae better, 

Than let them ance out owre the water, 

Then up among thae lakes and seas, 

They'll mak what rules and laws they please: 

Some daring Hancocke, or a Franklin, 

May set their Highland bluid a-ranklin; 

Some Washington again may head them, 

Or some Montgomery, fearless, lead them, 

Till God knows what may be effected 

When by such heads and hearts directed, 

Poor dunghill sons of dirt and mire 

May to Patrician rights aspire! 

Nae sage North now, nor sager Sackville, 

To watch and premier o'er the pack vile,

An' whare will ye get Howes and Clintons 

To bring them to a right repentance 

To cowe the rebel generation, 

An' save the honour o' the nation? 

They, an' be damn'd! what right hae they 

To meat, or sleep, or light o' day? 

Far less - to riches, pow'r, or freedom, 

But what your lordship likes to gie them? 

The rest of the poem, with a plain English version alongside, can be found here.

Well the ‘Lords’ nowadays are the leaders of the big green NGOs such as the WWF, with useful lords attendant such as Pachauri and Gore.  And those they would deny ‘meat, or sleep, or light o’day’ are the world’s poor, most especially those in the developing countries.    Paul Driessen tells their story. 

And, of course, nowadays, as back then, we have good and decent, and real, Lords too.  Not least Lord Lawson and Lord Monckton.  I feel sure Burns would have wanted to support the GWPF and the SPPI!  

Note added 04 June 2013  More Lords distinguishing themselves in this area.  Newly-accessioned Lord Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist, and of many other powerful presentations and articles.  Lord Donoughue for sustained Parliamentary Questioning of the Met Office.  Lord Lipsey for calling the bluff and bluster of a prominent Guardian alarmist. 

For the Climate Classroom Wall: anthropogenic sustainability threatens communication catastrophe

http://xkcd.com/1007/

The rising levels of 'sustainable' are presenting a major threat to the global communications system, and could even undermine efforts to destroy industrial civilisation by the propagation of alarm about a beneficial trace gas in the atmosphere.  So many participants in these efforts rely on 'sustainable' as a powerful charm to drive away the evil spirits of adventure, optimism, honesty, and scientific rigour.  But as yet, few of them seem to be aware of this major threat to their campaigns.  97% of linguists agree that this key word is under threat of losing any meaning whatsoever, noting that it is already in a 'vague, woolly, and confusing' state.  A little cabal of UN insiders is, thank goodness, preparing a plot to preserve at least a vestige of substance for this precious word, a word so dear to so many intent on controlling our lives, crushing the spirits of the young, and rubbishing the achievements of the past.  Emissions controls will be agreed to keep usage below the safe limit of 1ppm - a level not seen since the 1980s. It may already be too late for some green sites.  Take a look at this example, merely one among the thousands where this vital word is being deployed with a fearful frequency.

(hat-tip for the cartoon link: Jane Coles, comment on 'Unthreaded' yesterday (Jan 23, 2012 at 10:47 PM) at Bishop Hill)

Update 25 Jan 12: A serious threat to the control of sustainable emissions is looming at the so-called Earth Summit in Rio this June: 'In an attempt to avoid too much confrontation, the conference will focus not on climate change but on sustainable development ...'  (source)  Hat-tip: Climate Change Dispatch
 It would seem that the fuss over AGW has served its purpose and will now be sidelined in favour of 'sustainable development'.  More here on that by Luboš Motl.

Cittadini attenti! Opera Administrators turned Climate Activists target your Children

Like something out of the old Soviet Union, where all sorts of enterprises would have been inclined to declare their dedication and support for the current 5-year plan, no matter how remote from their competences, the Opera House at Glyndebourne has taken it upon itself to teach the young a thing or two about climate:

Exhibit (1)
'Gus Christie Executive Chairman Glyndebourne Productions Ltd said:

“The wind turbine is part of an environmental ambition for Glyndebourne and is a response to the global climate threat. We are proud that the turbine will make a significant contribution towards the achievement of renewable energy targets within this region. As an internationally renowned opera house, we want to use our profile to encourage other businesses and individuals to preserve the environment. Climate change is a certainty in our lifetime and we all need to take responsibility for this.”

Exhibit (2)
'Nationally over 15,000 people participate in Glyndebourne’s annual Education Programme.  When the turbine is operating in 2010, Glyndebourne Education will undertake a project focusing on the environment and creativity, using the turbine as its foundation in primary schools within a 25 mile radius of Glyndebourne.  This project will be implemented throughout the school year and is expected to involve over 4,000 children.  For all other ongoing community projects appropriate emphasis will be given to Glyndebourne’s environmental strategy. Glyndebourne will engage its Youth Groups, with over 100 participants aged eight to 18, in making the turbine the focus of their programme in 2010. Glyndebourne will also give talks about the turbine to the 3,500 students attending its performances for schools and ensure that the turbine will form part of our Opera Experience workshops enjoyed by 2,500 primary and secondary students each year.

Both exhibits found here:  glyndebourne.com/news-article/wind-turbine-proposal-press-statement

All this will go down well enough in the upper echelons of the BBC, the Royal Society, the Labour Party, the Green Party, and no doubt quite a few other playpens for the political class.  But it will not go down well with the people and councils of Sussex who opposed the turbine and had their views squashed by Hazel Blears acting for a government 'back in the day' that did not hesitate to push climate alarmism for political advantage - even to the point of deliberately frightening children.  And it will not go down well with anyone who is familiar with the diseconomies of windpower, nor with anyone who is familiar with the profound weaknesses of the case for alarm over human impacts on climate.  Nor with anyone who does not care to see the skyline of the Downs needlessly and extravagantly industrialised at the expense of electricity consumers, raptors, bats and others at risk from the blades.

Pic credit

Much as I love opera, much as I would dearly love to go to a performance at Glyndebourne, I can only wish them maximum embarrassment from this venture.  I predict the thing will be dismantled within 5 years, and after that, if not before, I hope the Opera House will devote itself to opera, and not to being a victim of political activists nor to being a pusher of child-unfriendly and scientifically absurd alarmism over CO2.



 Melodramatic posturing around 'the global climate threat' might make for an amusing light opera, but it will not make for good education.